The FRANCE Story.

Previously posted on my Facebook page. Or before the current change of leadership in France and the Paris Olympics. 

NEWS. “France’s Far Right Surges Into Parliament, and Further Into the Mainstream.” / “Macron Loses Absolute Majority as Opposition Surges, a Blow for New Term.” For the first time in 20 years, a newly elected French president failed to win an absolute majority in Parliament. That’d mean Macron has to deal with a defiant Left and a resurgent Far Right. Meanwhile, vanquished rival Marine Le Pen’s National Rally secures a formidable spot to launch a power balance.

       Anyhow, I don’t concur with media’s fascination with stereotyping academic lores. The global sociopolitical mindset is fast-changing and its interface has blurred the ism. Who are Left and who are Far-Right in the context of France, and where do we place Monsieur Emmanuel then?

       Those ism boxes don’t really matter much in Europe as it wrestles with a plethora of issues. Barely surviving the debt crisis of 2008 and the ensuing migrant problem and rising doubts in/around European Union’s credibility as a financial mechanism, came the Covid pandemic. Now, the Ukraine War.

       Wider divisions only blur recovery. Meantime, France’s economy is slowing more than previously expected as industries suffer from soaring energy costs and worsening supply constraints following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Macron has got to sit with his political rivals in the Parliament to fix the right here, right now problem. 🇫🇷🚘🇫🇷

FRANCE is not a major importer of Russian energy resources but a prolonged war in Ukraine would be costly. Still, refined petroleum is the 3rd most imported product in France. France imports this fuel primarily from Russia.

       And while other sellers in the region Netherlands, Belgium, and Spain are also encountering shortages, Russia looms valuable. Of course, there is Saudi Arabia and the U.S. but that is, if they could match Moscow’s way-down cheaper price tags.

       Emmanuel Macron has previously asked Volodymyr Zelensky to explore more diplomatic channels with Russian emissaries toward end of war but the Ukraine leader said no. And why not? Should I discuss the dirt in Kyiv’s leadership before and during Zelensky, and prior to Vladimir Putin’s invasion?

       Yet France’s GDP growth, coming from Covid years, is still a fine 4 percent although unemployment is at 7.3 percent. Inflation at 5.2 percent is below E.U. average of 8.2 percent.    

       But as I said, a continuing war—and China’s current business lockdown which exacerbate supply snarls—wouldn’t be good for France. Not unless Macron and the opposition Parliament set aside political self-righteousness in favor of economic smarts for the 67 million population. 🇫🇷🚘🇫🇷

ECONOMIC damage can be fixed. But what France—and the entirety of Europe—face which isn’t so easy to repair is people discontent with European Union leadership’s liberal embrace of surging migrants/refugees. A “better” economy isn’t enough to crush Europe’s individual populist/nationalism. Just a fact.

       And here is another inflow of migrants, coming from Ukraine. The United Nations estimated that in two months, from the outbreak of war in February, there would be 7.5 million internally displaced people in Ukraine, millions would be in need of healthcare and the number of people fleeing the war could reach 4 million. Recent number: As of 4 July, more than 5.2 million refugees from Ukraine have been recorded across Europe, and rapidly rising.

       As TIME’s Ian Bremmer writes few years ago, amidst the European migrant crisis: “There are now two Europes. The first is home to those committed to common political values, shared burdens and an ever closer European Union. The second is for those who see national and European values in almost constant conflict, who say each nation should solve its own problems, whatever the cost to the dream of `Europe whole and free.’”

       This widening divide, intensified by a rising wave of Middle Eastern migrants, poses the most dangerous challenge the union has ever faced. Which Emmanuel Macron and his divided government confront. Already, U.K.’s Boris Johnson got burned by the heat, and resigned. 🇫🇷🚘🇫🇷