Saturday, May 10, 2025

Universal Power Balance.

Responses to Facebook chats.


UNIVERSAL balance by race? The U.S. has the biggest title on the marquee. Europe (or the UK, France, Germany) isn't a "perfect" counterweight to America since Europeans are pretty much like majority Americans (whites). Same Caucasian lineage. 



       Russia was an ally then (Boxer Rebellion of 1899-1901 versus China; 1941-1945 to defeat Nazi Germany). Or in a way, after the 1991/Cold War's SALT, although the wounds of the Cold War were already deep that hardcores on both sides have already closed the door to mutual coolness. 

       Yet per racial lines, some of Europe (Scandinavia and Western part) still got Kievan Rus blood and vein. Yet when China emerged or its global trade expansionism really got going as the 21st century strode in (after the trade pact with the U.S. in 2000 and entry to WTO in 2001) and the CCP hooked up with the Kremlin on mostly trade agenda, the scale wobbled. And so BRICS was born in 2009, the US and Russia animosity got back albeit more economic jealousy (that pumped up the political competition). 

       Meanwhile, Russia was admitted to the WTO in 2012, mostly because Moscow "left" North Korea. Fact was, BFF China took over as the main benefactor of Pyongyang though Russia didn't really "leave." (Note the recent Kim Jong-un/Vladimir Putin meetings.) 

       China's advent is more the counter balance to the U.S. power because the Chinese are very different from America or Europe. The West has failed to break the Chinese, militarily or economically. Of course, the West hasn't defeated the Russians either. But this rivalry (in the absence of another world war) has to exist to sustain that universal balance. 



       Yet the rivalry somehow accentuates America's #1 stature because there is a China/Russia to compare itself with. Or gauge its might or coolness. Even if China gained #1 stature in economy, media will still say it is the U.S. as numero uno because the world will never believe China is their #1 rock star. But China likes it that way. Russia likes it that way. 

       DonaldTrump, I reckon, somehow believes that, too. But he also believes (and I believe) that China and Russia or BRICS per se have to sell their raw materials and manufacturing force to the U.S. to keep America up there. (Yes, the U.S. will probably have manufacturing back but mostly FDIs.) 

       Fighting "rivals" militarily is a waste of money and energy and lives. Better engage them in trade. Mr Trump's tariff tactic is a (trade) chess game directed at China to level the (economic) playing field (that China gained from the West). It may work, it may not. But he is looking for trade pact 2. 

       In Ukraine, The D wants the "rare earth," regardless if the next prez is a Russian bear or U.S. avatar (but Mr Zele has to go). In the Middle East, Israel still gets its arms burgers from the U.S. but trade will be the playbook trick. UAE, Egypt and Iran have joined BRICS as China expands in MENA and Tehran's oil goes to Beijing with no or less trouble in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf or Red Sea. 

       Iran has got to put the leash on the Houthis in Yemen. (Hence the Trump Threat to Iran as he avoids bombing Yemen.) Meanwhile, Gaza industrializes and Saudi Arabia and Qatar play more soccer and golf and tennis + hold more MMA, pro boxing and rock n roll. But the Arabs, Russians and Chinese stay "uncool" so that Americans will live forever and ever as humanity's coolest animal. LOL! 🇺🇸🇨🇳🇷🇺


Friday, April 25, 2025

More Stuff. Political Stuff, of course.

Responses to Facebook chats.


ALL the drama! The European Union sources 63 percent of its aluminium from Guinea, 41 percent of its manganese from South Africa, 35 percent of its tantalum from DRC etc etcetera. Copper, lithium and cobalt from Zambia as well go to the E.U. and the U.S. 



       What about American and European oil giants in Nigeria? Etc etcetera. Natural resources to the West! All these have been happening in Africa yet annually 6 million die out there from various diseases (including the Covid years). The West doesn't really care as long as they get what they want. WHO? Who what? 

       Should we talk about "arms for oil" deals in the Middle East since discovery of oil in the desert or since the birth of Israel in 1948? A war has to happen so they can get the oil in exchange for arms? That is why U.S. arms manufacturers dominate the Top 10. Until the region got rich, the Arab Spring shuddered and some of them joined BRICS. 

       Then suddenly Donald Trump shook the table with his aggro tariffs and then news said, whoa?!? I mean, are we talking about how evil America is now because Mr Trump shook the glade? Sure, Donald's tariff trickery is meant to rock the chess board versus China, whose trade expansionism carries on and holds the global economic leverage since 2001 when it joined the WTO, hoping that some US manufacturing goes home. They will not. 

      Some of the 8,600+ US companies in China may even expand to India. What will happen is these countries that are hit with U.S. tariffs will instead toss FDIs to the US (South Korea's Hyundai, Taiwan's TSMC, and Japan's SoftBank are early new investors) although their global money remains. 🏛🗽🏛




MEANWHILE, the U.S. is still #1 consumer market and marketing showroom. Meanwhile, nearly 50 out of 90+ hit by The D's tariffs expressed willingness to negotiate with the U.S. as China matches the cards on the table of course. 

       This is why we need to renegotiate. Shake the trade table. Not a reset via wars or regional armed hostilities or military dares via military aid. Aid giving must be reviewed and cut the quid pro quo that only motivated government corruption among recipient countries. Push the import/export redo. 

       Sure, the US economy will suffer some but, come on, we in America buy anything! Can't we pull back a bit? And save the money or credit cards till renegotiation is over? Till the U.S. and China sit for a second trade pact? In fact a trade war between these titans is good for others. Refer to Trump I's trade war with China (2016 etc) which, for example, benefitted Vietnam et al. Etc etcetera. 🏛🗽🏛


Wednesday, April 16, 2025

Tariff Talk and more talk tariff.

Responses to Facebook chats.


[ ] ALL THE BLAH. As though tariffs are new. Examples: Franklin D. Roosevelt's Reciprocal Tariff Act of 1934 enabled him to liberalize U.S. trade policy around the globe. LBJ's tariff spikes per trade quarrel with Germany (chicken and vans). 



       Fast forward: When China joined the WTO in 2001 (Russia in 2012) tariff tactics had to be reworked. China and Russia and their BRICS partners got the raw materials and APIs. (The BRICS trade bloc was formed in 2009.) The Chinese are the shrewdest of these BFFs. The merchant who talks less but deals more. 

       Meanwhile, Japan is the #1 FDI country in the U.S. and #1 host of US troops overseas (#3 is South Korea). Recently, Taiwan's TSMC and SK's Hyundai expressed willingness to upgrade investments here; Japan's SoftBank as well. Etc etcetera. 

       These are giant corporations playing mahjong on a weekend as they talk business. Tariff talks. But the media wants our clicks so here we go. 


[ ] THE PHILIPPINES. The U.S. has controlled Philippine economics since 1898. Why is this so big a deal now? Yet as the 21st century strode in, China loomed as the Philippines' top trading partner. So why don't Filipino farmers and workers turn to the BRICS bloc in the case of Washington's Donald Trump “messing things up.”

       The (Western) media tells us that because of Mr Trump's tariffs (which is not new in history) the world now suffers. Because of the U.S.? So whatever the U.S. does, the Philippines and the world simply abide? Or crashes like domino tiles? 

       Donald Trump's reasons are Very American Reasons per its economic competition with China. But China's global trade expansionism isn't about to stop. So why not sit with the Chinese, Russians, Indonesians, Brazilians etcetera? We got leverage. The Philippines' strategic position in the South China Sea is integral to Washington's military/security paranoia. We once junked the U.S. bases, we can do that again. 

       But then again, the Philippines' hatred for Trump almost equals its hatred for China. What do we really want? Weird kind of colonial mentality? LOL! 💸🏢💸


Thursday, April 10, 2025

Drama 101: Canada. United States.

Responses to Facebook chats.


This Canada / U.S. drama is a media fed "showtime" political caterwaul that only highlights President Trump's (and Elon Musk's) ADD fix and distracts from Justin Trudeau's failures (as Max Carney pumps up his approval mojo). 



       Cold facts that stay (especially that both extremes hate China): <>Canada is U.S.' #1 (or #2 behind Mexico) trade partner and #1 supplier of oil. 70 oil and natural gas pipelines deliver those "energy" to the U.S. Cut them? Nope. 

       <>Canadians (not the Chinese as some idiots say) own 33.5 percent of the total foreign-owned agricultural lands in the U.S. Etc etcetera. POTUS saliva and media intrigue can't change those facts. 

       As border neighbors, the U.S. and Canada are better off as partners. So what's next? Own Mexico, LOL! Are we in a 17th century timewarp? And those who say they are moving to Canada? How easy. It's like moving to California from Georgia? Easy. It's not like Trump-hating Americans need a visa to cross Niagara or apply for an asylum as in “The Handmaid's Tale.” Well, go visit and move back in 2029. But there's the Olympics in L.A. in 2028. Enjoy! 

       Meanwhile, self-induced anxiety with these Trump thrillers only spike Pfizer's profit grade per meds for the mental unease. The NBA playoffs are coming up! 🇺🇸☮️🇨🇳


Saturday, April 5, 2025

Americans and Russians and Chinese.

Response to Facebook chats.


BAFFLING how many Americans misread or miscalculate Vladimir Putin or Russia and China. Traditional hate vs global (narcissism) power rivals? Sinophobia? 

       When Bill Clinton signed a trade pact with Jiang Zemin of China in 2000 and paved the way for Beijing to enter the WTO (as an MFN or Most Favored Nation) the following year, Washington didn't have an idea what the CCP's next move would be. China's trade expansionism actually started years ago in Deng Xiaoping's time, late 1970s to 1980s (or his “open door policy” and global expansionism blueprint got going after Mao's death in 1976).



       Technically, Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative agenda was laid out in Deng's years while the U.S. was super busy and more focused in a Cold War with Russia. Joe Biden's chess moves were essentially Cold War-styled military intrigue in Eastern Europe (by way of Ukraine) and in South China Sea (by way of Taiwan). The war “dare” worked with Vladimir Putin but it didn't work with Xi. 

       The so-called “One China Policy” is now obsolete since the “two Chinas” are huge trade partners. President Trump battles them with tariffs as his Defense chief Pete Hegseth sells arms to Asia. (The U.S., which almost monopolizes arms manufacturing, still needs to sell arms, regardless of Mr Trump's dovish tact. Just a pragmatic Washington fact.)

       Check RCEP, China gathered 14 Asia Pacific economies to forge the largest trade pact in history in November 2020, as Joe Biden was celebrating his election win. Japan, South Korea, the Philippines etcetera may smile to the U.S. but their economic lifelines rely mostly with China and India (BRICS). 

       Russia? While NATO was expanding after 1991 (the Warsaw Pact ended), Moscow was expanding its economic clout via its oil and natural gas until Europe super relied on those energy imports. These days, the E.U. is struggling and hasn't recovered from below 1 percent economic growth due to the so-called embargo (though Germany, Netherlands, the U.K., France et al are still buying some mostly by way of India). Etc etcetera. 

       So we are still saying Mr Putin has a BFF in White House? Or China is guilty of human rights shit? Both the Kremlin and the CCP are sarcastically laughing as they carry on with business. (Refer to BRICS expansion. Trade not military.) 🏛🗽🏛


Sunday, March 30, 2025

MY THOUGHTS about the NEWS.

Previously posted on my Facebook Page.


Associated Press: “A Ukrainian man fleeing war is rescued with his kitten after a perilous journey through Romanian mountains.” First, I have to wonder if the man had a family. Yet it is apparently easier to simply tuck your cat in your backpack and run. Anyhow, we are again told of an individual who regards a cat as a dear friend and family. I will do the same, for sure. I will not, ever, leave Fizz and Ching and Arrow behind. ☮️🇺🇦😽




NY Times: “How Much Did Trump, Biden and Harris Raise? A Stunning $4.7 Billion.” Both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris broke PAC fundraising records. Joe won in 2020 though his failed tenure didn't exactly please his backers. Then Kamala lost. Blue has been out-PAC'ing Red since Obama days. Why not limit campaign donations? Give to government projects as China's “Common Prosperity” does? 🏛🗽🏛


New York Times: “How Trump Targeted Undecided Voters Without Breaking the Bank.” As a total underdog, Donald Trump proved it in 2016, versus Hillary Clinton. I was shocked. Yet after his 4 years and then Joe Biden's four years, I am not surprised why he won again. No amount of “dirt” in his spit or din of vilification drive vs him, mostly powered by PAC dough, can blur or erase the POTUS performance board. 🏛🗽🏛


AP: “GOP agenda: Trump and Republicans in Congress eye an ambitious 100-day agenda, starting with tax cuts.” Although mostly media bluster, the tariff story is a wait and see situation. Deportations? That noise is no different from the 2016 noise. (Fact: Barack Obama was the prez who deported the most number of migrants.) And now tax cuts. Let us see. My pragmatic girth doesn't really hinge on future tenses. 🏛🗽🏛


New York Times: “Stellantis and Samsung Will Get $7 Billion to Build Battery Factories.” Joe Biden also invested $6+ billion to entice semiconductor giant TSMC of Taiwan to build a plant in Texas. The project's operation was halted due to scarcity of skilled workers, which need training from the Taiwanese. Hey, why not invest as well in other industries? Americans don't even buy EVs compared with China and Europe. 🏛🗽🏛


New York Times: “Are Tax Credits the Best Way to Get Americans to Buy E.V.s?” This: The U.S. is not a top consumer market for electric vehicles. America is a distant third (9.5 percent) behind China (37 percent) and Europe (24 percent). So why did Joe Biden invest so much on EV production with the purpose of competing with China when the “contest” is lopsided? Calculated risk that wasn’t calculated. 

       Global annual sales of EVs, per 2023 data: China is #1 at $8+ million; U.S., $1.3 million. News adds: “The Inflation Reduction Act was a compromise between competing priorities. Evaluating the law on the effectiveness of the $7,500 tax credit for E.V.s is tricky.” 🚗🚕🛻




Washington Post: “Nearly every household in America has a car.” The U.S. and New Zealand are tied for the most cars per capita in the world, with around 0.9 vehicles per person. Iceland and Luxembourg also have high car ownership ratios. The country with less cars is Ethiopia, 2 automobiles per 1,000 people. I am not a fan of cars although, where I live, I need it. But what we need are more public transports. 🚗🇺🇸🚙


New York Times: “A Culture-War Battle Convulses a School Panel in Liberal Manhattan.” Yup, it’s all about transgender students’ participation in sports. Boom! We got problemo, of course! Then, teachers and their supervisors and parents talk (and sometimes “fight”) about matters that are beyond the current “culture war” discourse cycle. You know what I mean? Or you don't know what I mean? Have we forgotten? 📝😫🧮


NY Times: “How Australia Will (or Won’t) Keep Children Off Social Media.” Critics say big questions remain whether the ban will really protect young people. Sure, Big Tech loses some profits, especially if other countries follow Australia's lead. Meanwhile, do parents really have time to engage their children beyond the internet per se? For example, would you talk to your kids without imposing your politics on them? 📱🇦🇺📲


AP: “US announces nearly $1 billion more in longer-term weapons support for Ukraine.” The Biden administration rushes to spend all the Congress approved money it has left to bolster Kyiv before Mr Trump takes office next month. Sure, the taxpayer money was okayed by lawmakers, right? Might as well waste them before Mr Trump uses them for home-based exigencies? $1 billion is not spare change. ☮️☮️☮️

Saturday, March 22, 2025

Thailand’s Economic Story.

Previously posted on my Facebook page. Not updated. 


HISTORICALLY known as Siam, Thailand, located in Southeast Asia, is an old country that has never been colonized despite European conquests of most of the region in the past. European contact began in 1511 with a Portuguese diplomatic mission to Ayutthaya, which became a regional power by the end of the 15th century. Ayutthaya reached its peak during cosmopolitan Narai's reign, gradually declining thereafter until being ultimately destroyed in the Burmese–Siamese War.



       Yet Siam/Thailand, then and now, remains as one of a few countries that was never conquered by a foreign power. Not unless it is all about economics.

       The 1997–98 Asian financial crisis began in Thailand and then quickly spread to neighboring economies. It began as a currency crisis when Bangkok unpegged the Thai baht from the U.S. dollar, setting off a series of currency devaluations and massive flights of capital. Thai bhat, that time, reached almost 53.

       That crisis could be happening again. Economists predict that Thailand is expectedly to be one of the first to be impacted if the U.S. falls into a recession. Already, as we speak, as the U.S. struggles to get off decades-high inflation, Thai bhat is now at 38—down 22 percent compared with three years ago, before the pandemic. The record low was 22 in 1978. 🇹🇭🇹🇭🇹🇭


THAILAND relies heavily on tourism for its economic growth. Tourist spending accounted for approximately 11 percent of Thailand’s GDP in 2019, or before the pandemic. The country welcomed almost 40 million visitors that year and generated more than $60 billion in revenue, according to World Bank data. Most of tourism’s drivers are Chinese visitors but with Covid travel restrictions in place in Beijing these days, Bangkok only sees darkness.

       Economists who watched the 1997 currency crash say Thailand’s current downturn predictably follows, after Singapore. Thailand’s inflation rate is at a 14-year high of 7.86 percent. After Singapore and Thailand, next to go down in the region are the economies of Indonesia and the Philippines, due to their “domestic oriented economies.”



       Economics is complex and I don’t claim I know much. I just read. The rising strength of the U.S. dollar, which has been appreciating against other currencies since last year but began rising particularly rapidly this summer, is the result of multiple causes. Foremost of which is the decision by U.S. central bankers at the Federal Reserve to begin aggressively raising interest rates to fight inflation.

       The Federal Reserve’s determination to crush inflation at home by raising interest rates is inflicting pain in other countries — pushing up prices, ballooning the size of debt payments and increasing the risk of a deep recession.

       Interest rate increases are pumping up the value of the dollar — the go-to currency for much of the world’s trade and transactions — and causing economic turmoil in both rich and poor nations. In Britain and across much of the European continent, the dollar’s acceleration is helping feed stinging inflation. 🇹🇭🇹🇭🇹🇭


THAILAND’s chief industries are machinery, electronics, foods and wood, chemicals and plastics, automobiles and automotive parts, stone and glass, textiles and furniture. Investments by foreign businesses soared by nearly 75 percent during the first half of 2022 compared to the same period last year as companies.

       Investment is one of the three key pillars of the Thai economy, along with exports and consumption. The sharp rise in the value of foreign investments is a sign that global businesses still see Thailand as a competitive location for their operations. Until the U.S suffers its own economic problem/s.

       Top three trading partners: United States, China, Japan. As Bangkok’s top trade buddy, Washington has showered the former with attention in recent years. In June this year, Thailand joined 12 other countries in signing up to the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), a diverse trade platform that will now be negotiated among partners over the next 18 months.

       The dependency with U.S. investments, however, is majorly blamed for the current currency crash. For one, imports from the U.S. have grown costly etc etcetera. 🇹🇭🇹🇭🇹🇭


ANYHOW, the power struggle between the United States and China is a loud reality in Thailand as both superpowers escalate presence in the country. Although the U.S. is ahead in FDIs, China remains as an important ally to Thailand, partly because of its influence and prominence in the region.



       Trade between Beijing and Bangkok has risen fast in the last few decades. Bilateral trade in 1999 was worth $4.22 billion. Fast forward: China exports to Thailand last year was a whopping $69.36 billion against a mere $5.2 billion in Thai imports.

       China also has military relations with Thailand. Among other deals, in 2017, the Royal Thai Navy signed a contract with the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation for a S26T diesel-electric submarine, which is derived from the Type 039A submarine. The submarine is expected to be delivered in 2023.

       I can discuss this more and connect it with the 1997 currency crash (with emphasis on George Soros’ dubious “speculative investing”) but suffice to say that, these days, foreign military subjugation doesn’t define invasion. It’s all economics.

       For the meantime, the bigger news in Thailand is this horror: “After Day Care Massacre, Thailand Is Roiled With Grief.” News adds: “Anguished families were coming to terms with the loss of their young children as the nation pondered issues like gun violence and the widespread availability of deadly weapons.” 🇹🇭🇹🇭🇹🇭