Pragmatic take. Regime Change: Philippines 1986. Venezuela 2026.

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<>There was a “People Power” (sort of revolt) in the Philippines in 1986 but the end of the 20-year dictatorship was sealed when RAM (Reform the Armed Forces Movement) launched the coup. Since strongman Ferdinand Marcos Sr was a Washington faithful, the family was rescued to safety in Hawaii. Per Constitution, veep Salvador Laurel took over and then an election installed Corazon Aquino as President, which was a no-brainer. Cory, widow of slain top oppositionist Benigno Aquino, was the obvious people’s choice. 

       Next: Attempts to recover the Marcoses and cronies’ ill-gotten wealth. But then Imelda Marcos won her racketeering etcetera court date in New York trial. The family's stash was secured. Offshore holdings and all that “wash.” Yet more than three decades hence, the Marcos family is back in power. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is the President. 🇵🇭🇺🇸🇻🇪

<>Venezuela is a lot more complicated. Their People Power happened in 2019 but the dictatorship wasn't regime changed after Nicolas Maduro agreed per Donald Trump pressure that Chevron returns to Caracas. Chavez/Maduro kicked all U.S. companies out in 2007. The economy, regardless of largest oil deposits, crashed in 2014; oil was selling at $100/barrel--as crime rates catapulted Venezuela in the top 5 of most dangerous countries. In other words, oil was grossly mismanaged. Yet although technically Venezuela was still under sanction, Chevron was in and figured in state-owned PDVA management. 

       The economy improved a bit (to -1 percent growth) from 2019 to 2025, as China purchased the majority of oil exports (80+ percent). But inflation stayed super high at 270 percent into 2025. And this: The Cartel de los Soles was also somehow exerting power within PDVSA, with Colombia's Clan del Golfo. Venezuela is a drug contraband transit country. Mr Trump has somehow "checked" the Mexico cartels (or stopped) from facilitating border crossings. President Claudia Sheinbaum is on the same page. (Border crossings were record highs in Joe Biden time.) 

       President Trump pressured Mr Maduro to lose cartel influence in his government or PDVSA. Or don't meddle as The D takes out cartel boats. (Venezuela still owes huge amounts of money to American (oil) companies that the dictatorship sent away years ago.) But Nic didn't listen this time. He was unperturbed, obviously pumped up by the anti-Trump or wide-divide in the U.S. Maduro blunder.  

       Yet days before the “grab,” China and Russia mediated: Lose Cartel de los Soles and Tren de Aragua. Nic wasn’t listening. I mean, this truth: "Losing" the cartels or narcopolitics is like suicide. Lose them or the U.S. takes you out. No better choice. 

       <>Difference with the Philippines? Oil. My home country didn’t have that gargantuan reserve of oil. But contrary to a lot of clueless memes, the U.S. did not invade Venezuela. It was a regime change. But U.S. companies are back in. <>Must I type up the same Washington playbooks elsewhere in history? Or the Middle East from the 1920s discovery of oil? <>America (now with China) rules the roost. It's up to the leadership of countries how to work around that global fact. Example: Now prosperous Vietnam is now coming from the ruins of war. Or in a larger context, Japan after WW2. Etc etcetera. 🇵🇭🇺🇸🇻🇪

Dictatorship. Authoritarianism. And Stuff.

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FB Friend: <>Were you there (Philippines) through the rise of the dictatorship, or born into it?

The dictatorship technically started in 1965, but the real hardships/evil commenced in the 1970s. I started my professional journalism work at age 14 (1974) and then I worked/was junior staff for an indie newspaper that almost single-handedly battled the dictatorship (which was deposed in 1986). I was also a member of several arts/writer's groups and NGOs with similar cause/s. Post-1986, I worked for a DOGE-alike commission under the President, and I sat with a think-tank for a presidential bet before I finally flew to New York in late 1990s.)

FB Friend: <>No one is saying America IS a dictatorship. We are saying the country is slipping towards authoritarianism.

No one?!? LOL! Have you seen the memes? Anyhow, there’s only a thin, grey line that separates dictatorship and authoritarianism, per my experience. And as I reiterate, I haven’t seen/experienced any in America. 

FB Friend: <>What else do you call consolidating power under one branch, when the whole idea of three co-equal branches is to serve as a check on each of their powers? Which is clearly happening. 

That is a matter of opinion though. But I know how other dictatorships elsewhere “dissolved” Congress. Nope, I don’t parallel those moves in America at all. In the Philippines, the opposition (multi-party system) was still alive during the dictatorship though. Long discussion… 

FB Friend: <>Or at least there’s an effort to do that.

Again, a matter of opinion or perception.

FB Friend: <>What I’m saying is what you experienced living in a dictatorship for 20 years should not be the comparison. Once we can compare, it’s too late.

I wasn’t born and bred in America, who came from a country that was colonized and now a zealot ally of Washington, so I MUST compare. There are clear basis of comparison/s. The dictatorship back home was so coddled by America that even the regime-change was a U.S. handiwork (and they rescued the dictator, of course). If I don’t compare current America with other countries (especially those that are “dictated” by the U.S.), then I am pretending. Pretending that what I am seeing/experiencing in the U.S. is the first time ever that these are happening in my life? LOL! How can I “un-experience” my life? And my life here is far from being “in a dictatorship.” 

FB Friend: <>How anyone doesn’t see this administration as testing the limits baffles me frankly. That’s not an excuse for rioting or violence but I sure understand why people are upset. 

That we agree. This administration, and actually America per se, is being challenged from the inside. I saw that in coups that I covered (apart from the Philippines) in Asia. But the question is: What moved them to challenge their government? Extremes. Or aptly, what brought about the Arab Spring of 2011? That the Occupy “movement” bit as though what happened in Egypt or Tunisia is anything near what was happening in the U.S. or happening now.

FB Friend: <>I’m well versed in the USA. I’ve lived in multiple states as a journalist, have lived most of my life in the South, but also spent 4 years in New Jersey.

I bet every American is well-versed with their own country. This is your country. My (American) housemates are also well-versed with the U.S., although many of your insights, they’d argue those. Fact is, many Americans know America but very little or limited knowledge of life beyond, including in countries that are designated as U.S. allies, and worse, the “rogues.” 

FB Friend: <>The Constitution is quite clear on things like freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, freedom of the press, and the right to due process for all people. Those are all being challenged. 

The question is, which side of America’s continually widening divide challenges those constitutional sublimities? Clearly, what you are saying is (the Constitution) is being challenged by this side of the divide. Reason why I don’t see any point producing or organizing community events or publishing newsprints anymore. The crack is so wide, and I feel engulfed by the crazy tide. Meanwhile, what made Filipinos come out as one against a 20-year dictatorship, when the fact was, we are historically fragmented? This: Tactical alliance by unlike-minded groups but one versus the dictatorship. When that happens in America, yes–I’d believe there’s authoritarianism or whatever evil in leadership. Otherwise, these are (simply) cracks, a-howling.

       So, I share again what I heard/read from Howard Zinn before he died in 2010 (note, 2010): America is seeing a divide that’d rival the Civil War years… Nice chat. Thanks. ☮️🗽☮️

Pragmatic Take: Oil and America.

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OH well. So much ado about the U.S. “wanting” Venezuela’s oil. As though America hadn't been doing the oil thing? In the Middle East, from 1908, 1913, 1927, 1938: Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait. Standard Oil and Texaco (which gave birth to Aramco, which is now sole Saudi-owned), Exxon (Jersey Standard), Pacific Coast Oil/SOCAL (Chevron), and Mobil (Socony Vacuum) were the earlier oil diggers, along with BP (then Anglo Persian Oil Co.) from the UK. Much later came Getty Oil. Etc. 

       To get the "takeover" via partnership with the host country done, "arms for oil" dominated bilateral deals. But there's gotta be wars. So there you go. 

       Meanwhile, in Venezuela (#1 in proven oil deposits albeit mismanaged) the intrigue is, I believe, U.S. oil giants are wrestling among themselves who'd get a better stance in (state-owned) PDVSA. Chevron is already there or back in Caracas (since 2019 when Don and Nic were cool). And since China buys more than 80+ percent of Venezuelan oil, pricing is an issue. China also buys majority of Iran's oil (and oil from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq) as world's #1 oil importer. So the drama isn't as simple as another hate-Trump pitch. 

       Another fact: Have the Cartel de los Soles or Tren de Aragua already weeded out of PDVSA? Most likely, not yet. American oil execs don't need sicarios in the payroll, I guess. Etc etcetera. Anyhow, many are howling that this U.S. oil thingy elsewhere is a new thing. They didn't know? Or the magnificent hate for Donald Trump made them forget grade school oil history? ⛽️🇺🇸⛽️

Venezuela and Drug Cartels.

Response to a Friend’s Facebook page/post. 

THE drug that is primarily trafficked through Venezuela is cocaine, which is produced in Colombia (coca farms or coca cultivation areas). Venezuela is a "transit country," that is run by the Cartel de los Soles, whose membership include military officers and government officials. Like typical trading/business groups, cartels hook up with each other in re production from raw produce to product packaging–all the way to transport/shipments to the distribution network. 

       Clan del Golfo has taken over from Medellin (Pablo Escobar) and Cali (Rodriguez-Orejuela brothers); Tren de Aragua also operates in the region. Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum essentially concurred with President Trump to block the usual routes of Mexican cartels (Sinaloa, Jalisco, Juarez, Los Zetas etcetera--Darien Pass, Rio Grande, Gulf of Mexico, Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts) to U.S. borders. So cartels have to find alternatives; they earn around $70 billion in the U.S. market alone (modest estimate). 

       Fentanyl mostly comes from Mexico with precursor chemicals coming from China, which along with Myanmar, also supply poppies for opium (heroin). Triad or the Golden Triangle crime group run the Asia wing. Note that China buys 80+ percent of Venezuela's oil. Cartels or narcopolitics somehow got into PDVDA shipments so China was also concerned. 

       Meanwhile, Colombia is the top recipient of U.S. military aid in all of Latin America. Mr Trump is pissed with President Gustavo Petro, of course. Like in Venezuela, nothing has been done to curb drug trafficking in the Colombia/Venezuela corridor. Also drug corporations are popularly suspected of doing side business with cartels for drug ingredients, but that is essentially bereft of hard evidence. 

       Afghanistan used to produce the most opium or poppy flowers but since the Taliban took over, those farms somehow are legalized for (legal) trade dealings. Part of The D's Doha Accords (2020) “end of war” deal with the Taliban, expectedly included legal imports of poppies to the U.S. 

       Meanwhile, APIs or pertinent ingredients to many major medicines or pharmaceuticals are produced outside of the U.S. or Europe yet Western drug companies dominate the global market. Cartels somehow sink their hands in the export of these APIs, in connivance with corrupt government officials. Note: Ex Mexican prez Enrique Nieto received $100 million in bribes from El Chapo in just 1 year. Etc etcetera. You see, the U.S./Central America program that pursued drug cartels was the Merida Initiative, which was abolished by Biden in 2021, and replaced by a "holistic" program. Uh huh. “Holistic” means a record number of cartel-facilitated border crossings took place from 2021 to 2024? 🇺🇸☮️🇻🇪

THE United States and Venezuela’s oil. 

       It is common knowledge that Venezuela has the most oil deposits in the world, followed by Saudi Arabia, Iran and Canada--but the U.S. is #1 producer since 2018. Saudi Arabia and Russia are #1 and #2 in exports; China is #1 in imports (China is #6 in production but it essentially doesn't export.) Note that the U.S. and China are currently doing fine the moment Donald Trump sat in White House again in January last year, trade truce and all. 

       Regardless of Venezuela’s massive oil (mostly run by the state-owned PDVSA) it was grossly mismanaged, esp. when Hugo Chavez sat (Nicanor Maduro as veep) beginning in 1999. As in other cases (think Middle East), the U.S. (and one or 2 European companies) help run the oil business elsewhere. But the Chavez/Maduro tandem kicked all U.S. corporations out of the country in 2007 and moved to nationalize industries. By 2013 (also the year Mr Chavez died), the economy crashed, hit harder the following year; Mr Maduro couldn’t keep up. Crimes spiked; Venezuela is ranked in the top 5 of countries with most violence or crimes/homicides. Tempest blew up in 2019 after a contested election that, of course, had Nic “winning.” Streets burned. That was also Trump I year. 

       Instead of regime-changing Nicanor Maduro in 2019, Mr Trump negotiated the return of Chevron to Caracas. Chevron easily participated in the management of PDVSA, which then targeted China as the main buyer. To date, China buys 80+ percent of Venezuela’s oil exports. Imagine how Chevron got in with Cartel de los Soles lurking in the wings. 

       Joe Biden took over Washington from 2021. So figure that one out, leading to the laxity in U.S. borders. Go back to my post above.) Note as well that part of Trump’s talk with Maduro in 2019 was about the Cartel de los Soles etcetera. But since Trump was out of power in the ensuing years, that deal was voided naturally. So Trump’s back to pursue the same deal but Maduro is defiant, with help of course from America’s eerie divide. It was like the Left views Maduro as the Hero and Trump as the Villain, of course.

       Meanwhile, Venezuela and/or PDVSA owes U.S. companies that Maduro kicked out in 2007. The country’s external debt stands at $170 billion and counting. Pragmatically speaking, the U.S. and Europe essentially managed oil in the Middle East from discovery in the 1930s, which then gave birth to Saudi Arabia’s Aramco. Aramco was a U.S.-Saudi partnership until 1980, when SA took full ownership. Discussion of U.S. presence in oil-rich ME is long though. Good and bad and somewhere in the middle, depending on which side of the Left/Right spectrum one is aligned with. 

       For the meantime let’s just say Saudi Arabia et al got super rich as the 21st century strode in. Now SA, UAE, Qatar et al are powerful global influencers. 🇺🇸☮️🇻🇪

Venezuela’s Oil! And the takedown of Nic Maduro by Don Trump.

Response to a Friend’s Facebook page/post. 

Friend’s Post: “America needs heavy crude oil to keep its refineries running. Venezuela produces it. Do the math.” 

THESE facts: The U.S. is the world's top oil producer. Yet 60+ percent of Canada's oil exports go to the U.S. The #2 and #3 importers are Mexico and Saudi Arabia. Add 83 more countries that import oil to the U.S. America is the #3 top oil exporter, behind Saudi Arabia and Russia. Meanwhile, 80+ percent of Venezuelan oil is shipped to China.   

       Mr Trump would have regime-changed Maduro in 2019 when the tempest was hot in Caracas. China wasn't buying oil from state-owned PDVSA that much then. Instead, Nic and Don negotiated to bring U.S. oil giants back to Venezuela that Chavez/Maduro kicked out. From that point, Chevron et al were back out there. But it is China that bought the most oil, which allowed the country's economy to recover a bit. Note that Chavez/Maduro sank Venezuela's economy to a record low then. 

       Meanwhile, Trump wants the head honchos of Tren de Aragua and Cartel de los Soles. But the prolonged drama has started to worry China, especially after Trump stopped an oil tanker, days before the “capture” of Mr Maduro. So China (with Russia) mediated days ago. News two or three days before the “grab” was that Nicanor seemed poised to talk with U.S. emissaries about drug trafficking. But obviously it failed. So! 

       But I repeat: China was concerned with the delay of oil shipments. I don't think The D will take the Venezuelan strongman without China's approval. Trump would have easily erased Maduro in 2019. 🇺🇸☮️🇻🇪

Legal or illegal?

LET me be pragmatic-old rather than legal-cool. This: The U.S. Constitution requires Congress authorization to declare war etcetera but POTUSes have historically used their power as commander-in-chief to initiate military actions and interventions without explicit, formal congressional approval. Ergo: <>Congress has the power to declare war and authorize the use of military action. <>The President or Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces has the authority to order and direct troops. <>The War Powers Resolution of 1973 requires the prez to notify Congress within 48 hours; forces cannot remain for more than 60 days; potential 30-day withdrawal period. Refer to the "Banana Wars" era and Cold War years. 

       Examples: 1953 coup in Iran and 1954 coup in Guatemala. In recent decades, refer to post-9/11 hits (many!) Must we go back to the pre-1800s? Or during U.S. expansionism years (onto 1912). Must we debate all invasions, regime changes, sponsored coups etcetera? What about CIA black-ops that aren't even "reported." 

       Here's a popular one: Black Hawk Down in Somalia (Operation Gothic Serpent) meant to take out Mohamed Farrah Aidid, or the Battle of Mogadishu in 1993? No Congress okay. The official death number is over 300 but human rights organizations say over 1,000 (in just one day, as famously depicted in the 2001 movie). I can cite more. 

       Let's cut to the chase: Majority of U.S. military operations abroad are illegal. Or to me, all wars are illegal. All U.S. interventions or meddling are illegal. But since this is Donald Trump, everything is simply illegal. LOL! 🇺🇸☮️🇻🇪