The U.S. and China. And More Tariff Talk.

Responses to Facebook chats.

THE tariff pitch is a "chip" as trade emissaries of the U.S. and China talk leading to a signed agreement or the 2nd phase of Mr Trump's trade pact with Xi Jinping (the first phase was inked in January 2020). 

       Fact: From 2021 to 2024, the U.S. (foreign policy) playbook obviously changed as China went to "work" quietly, groundworking other economies beyond the U.S. Hints: Just 2 weeks after Nov 2020, China gathered 14 Asia Pacific economies to form the RCEP, currently the world’s largest trade bloc. Check China's new FDIs in MENA. And of course BRICS expanded (add Egypt UAE Iran Indonesia Ethiopia) in those years. The impact of trade in Europe also shook as the Ukraine war exploded and Russian energy imports to the region halted or lessened. 

       The Chinese are very shrewd or cunning traders. As news focuses on or obsessed with every Trump move, the CCP makes deals in the backyard and side-streets. Look back how China bought lands NSEW of the Great Wall from the time of Deng Xiaoping to the 21st century as the U.S. was busy with “cold war'ring” with Russia. Parallel with while Joe was busy pissing off Vlad, Xi was tossing FDIs and loans all over. 

       As these tariff dramas are played up by the media like a doomsday missile, corporations take advantage by jacking up prices. Of course media is also owned or linked profit-wise with those who sell. Fact: The US is world's #1 consumer market and market influencer. Of course China knows that but China is not a top FDI or investor or landowner in the US (Japan and Canada are) yet the US buys a lot of raw materials or pertinent minerals from China like silicon (think Nvidia) and 8,600+ American companies (think Apple and Microsoft and GM) are active in China. Etc etcetera. 🏛🗽🏛

Democratic Republic of Congo.

Previously posted on my Facebook page. Not updated. 

NEWS: “Anti-U.N. Protests in Congo Leave 15 Dead, Including 3 Peacekeepers.” And adds: “Demonstrators have accused international forces of failing to deter armed groups responsible for a wave of deadly attacks.” Mayhem seems to shroud Africa the most these days. Congo is no different. Too bad for its 90 million, who are hungry, poor, and beleaguered by nonstop violence and ailment.

       Yet the fact/s: DRC could be the world’s richest country when it comes to natural resources, with massive untapped deposits of minerals including cobalt, copper, diamonds and gold amounting to approximately $24 trillion. Add ample coltan, zinc, tin, and tungsten. Congo also possesses extensive rainforest reserves and boasts one of the highest hydroelectric power capacities in Africa and globally.

        Other chief industries are consumer products (including textiles, plastics, footwear, cigarettes, processed foods, beverages), metal products, lumber, cement, and commercial ship repair. Sadly, most people in DRC have not benefited from this wealth.

        The DRC's main trading partners are the European Union, chiefly Belgium and France, followed by China, South Africa and the United States. 🇨🇩🇨🇩🇨🇩

GDP growth rate rebounded from 1.7 percent last year to 6.2 percent this year, which is well above the 4.5 percent rate in sub-Saharan Africa. To cash in on this trend, Congo’s leadership has to stop the violence, which exacerbates the not so good 5.4 percent unemployment rate.

       What confounds me is—why despite DRC’s rich promise of economic goodness, the country doesn’t attract U.S. investments. After a peak in 2014, foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa from the United States dropped to $44.81 billion in 2020, yet it slightly picked up in 2021. Africa receives lower FDI inflows than any other region, although China seems interested in putting in some money.

       As ever, Washington’s interest in Africa is political rather than economic. Yet relations with Congo have always been shaky since the country’s most radical Congolese-Marxist period, 1965–77. The U.S. Embassy reopened in 1977 with the restoration of relations, which remained distant until the end of the socialist era.

       The most that the U.S. could do is a recent additional aid of $13 million, in addition to its current election support of $10.65 million, to support transparent, credible, and inclusive political processes in the country. That amount is simply spare change to what other allies get, which are in the billion$ range. 🇨🇩🇨🇩🇨🇩

THE United States doesn’t care much though. But China is. (Remember, Beijing’s only overseas military base is in Africa, in Djibouti).

      During the souring of U.S./Congo relations due primarily to the latter’s socialist leanings then, China quietly entered. Diplomatic and economic relations started in 1971, although ties go back to 1887, Congo Free State established contacts with the Qing dynasty then ruling China.

       The DRC upholds the One-China policy, as it recognizes the PRC as the sole legitimate government of China rather than the ROC/Taiwan.

       In the 21st century, Chinese investment in the DRC and Congolese exports to China have grown rapidly. The DRC joined the Belt and Road Initiative in 2021. That year, the two countries sat down to talk about a $6 billion deal that’d allow a consortium of Chinese companies to invest in mining and infrastructure projects in DRC.

       In 2000, a Sino-Congolese telecommunications company (China-Congo Telecom) was set up. Trade between China and the DRC greatly increased between 2002 and 2008. This is largely due to massive growth in the DRC's exports of raw materials to China, especially cobalt, copper ore and hardwoods.

       What concerns the U.S., of course, is China’s commitment in providing assistance for Congo’s military. That’d be another story. 🇨🇩🇨🇩🇨🇩

Universal Power Balance.

Responses to Facebook chats.

UNIVERSAL balance by race? The U.S. has the biggest title on the marquee. Europe (or the UK, France, Germany) isn't a "perfect" counterweight to America since Europeans are pretty much like majority Americans (whites). Same Caucasian lineage. 

       Russia was an ally then (Boxer Rebellion of 1899-1901 versus China; 1941-1945 to defeat Nazi Germany). Or in a way, after the 1991/Cold War's SALT, although the wounds of the Cold War were already deep that hardcores on both sides have already closed the door to mutual coolness. 

       Yet per racial lines, some of Europe (Scandinavia and Western part) still got Kievan Rus blood and vein. Yet when China emerged or its global trade expansionism really got going as the 21st century strode in (after the trade pact with the U.S. in 2000 and entry to WTO in 2001) and the CCP hooked up with the Kremlin on mostly trade agenda, the scale wobbled. And so BRICS was born in 2009, the US and Russia animosity got back albeit more economic jealousy (that pumped up the political competition). 

       Meanwhile, Russia was admitted to the WTO in 2012, mostly because Moscow "left" North Korea. Fact was, BFF China took over as the main benefactor of Pyongyang though Russia didn't really "leave." (Note the recent Kim Jong-un/Vladimir Putin meetings.) 

       China's advent is more the counter balance to the U.S. power because the Chinese are very different from America or Europe. The West has failed to break the Chinese, militarily or economically. Of course, the West hasn't defeated the Russians either. But this rivalry (in the absence of another world war) has to exist to sustain that universal balance. 

       Yet the rivalry somehow accentuates America's #1 stature because there is a China/Russia to compare itself with. Or gauge its might or coolness. Even if China gained #1 stature in economy, media will still say it is the U.S. as numero uno because the world will never believe China is their #1 rock star. But China likes it that way. Russia likes it that way. 

       DonaldTrump, I reckon, somehow believes that, too. But he also believes (and I believe) that China and Russia or BRICS per se have to sell their raw materials and manufacturing force to the U.S. to keep America up there. (Yes, the U.S. will probably have manufacturing back but mostly FDIs.) 

       Fighting "rivals" militarily is a waste of money and energy and lives. Better engage them in trade. Mr Trump's tariff tactic is a (trade) chess game directed at China to level the (economic) playing field (that China gained from the West). It may work, it may not. But he is looking for trade pact 2. 

       In Ukraine, The D wants the "rare earth," regardless if the next prez is a Russian bear or U.S. avatar (but Mr Zele has to go). In the Middle East, Israel still gets its arms burgers from the U.S. but trade will be the playbook trick. UAE, Egypt and Iran have joined BRICS as China expands in MENA and Tehran's oil goes to Beijing with no or less trouble in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf or Red Sea. 

       Iran has got to put the leash on the Houthis in Yemen. (Hence the Trump Threat to Iran as he avoids bombing Yemen.) Meanwhile, Gaza industrializes and Saudi Arabia and Qatar play more soccer and golf and tennis + hold more MMA, pro boxing and rock n roll. But the Arabs, Russians and Chinese stay "uncool" so that Americans will live forever and ever as humanity's coolest animal. LOL! 🇺🇸🇨🇳🇷🇺