CHINA and TAIWAN.

Previously posted on my Facebook page. Not updated. 

MY TAKE on the NEWS . The “Many Taiwan-China Dares by way of Joe Biden” News: “Biden Says We’ve Got Taiwan’s Back. But Do We?” / “Biden Pledges to Defend Taiwan if It Faces a Chinese Attack.” / “U.S. Speeds Up Reshaping of Taiwan’s Defenses to Deter China.” / “Biden Veers Off Script on Taiwan. It’s Not the First Time.” The President and the current United States leadership per se are obviously not yet done with Ukraine-Russia tempest. Almost $50 billion shipped to Kyiv in two months, yet we are seeing another unfolding deadly drama in Asia?

       I don’t think that’s gonna happen though.

       The New York Times follows up with its report with: “Biden pledges to defend Taiwan against China, but the U.S. is outgunned.” U.S. outgunned? Whoa! I don’t think so. Despite China’s massive population that is almost 5x the size of the U.S., Beijing’s military spending is only 1/4th of Washington’s budget. America has 750 military bases overseas; China, 1—in Djibouti. So by sheer mathematics of heft, yes—the U.S. can “defend” Taiwan.

       But a war in the East ain’t gonna happen.

       To reiterate his earnestness, Biden adds that he is moving away from “…a policy of `strategic ambiguity’.” And said that to protect the island democracy, he would go beyond what the U.S. has done for Ukraine. So more spending?

       The dare doesn’t stop there, of course. The Biden administration, NY Times goes on, is taking lessons from the war in Ukraine to turn Taiwan into a “porcupine” bristling with weapons that would inflict severe pain if attacked.

       And so on and so forth. Scary. Lest these are all talk per chess game tactic. 🇨🇳🇺🇸🇹🇼

TAKE into account though that the President said those words while prepping up for a summit with Australia, India and Japan. Yet the off-the-cuff vow to defend the island militarily against China complicates diplomacy, particularly for Australia.

       Given: These Asia/Pacific powerhouses are traditional U.S. allies, with India neither here nor there. Fact: Australia and Japan, both trade #1 with China, are recent signatories to the Beijing-led 15-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the largest trade bloc in history. The U.S. has overtaken China as India’s top economic buddy but India is an enigma. It recently thumbed-down Biden’s call of sanction on Russia; PM Narendra Modi reiterated his support for Vladimir Putin.

       Meanwhile, NY Times adds: ““Offhand remarks that vary from the official talking points have become a feature of the Biden presidency, even as they leave his staff scrambling to spin them away afterward.” You see, Biden seems to talk about this stuff and next, we ask: Did he mean it, was he coaxed, what’s up? Yet seriously, the way Biden goads China per Taiwan, reminds me of how it was before Vlad lost his poise in February.

       Weird, whacked, but still cause for concern. 🇨🇳🇺🇸🇹🇼

QUESTION is: Would China invade its former nemesis albeit “sibling,” you reckon? Nope. I don’t think China/Taiwan will be like Russia/Ukraine. They got different issues. Per Moscow/Kyiv, you may start with the gas disputes and Donbas coal. China and Taiwan? Beijing will remain Taiwan's largest export destination in 2021. In that year, Taiwan exported approximately $125.9 billion worth of goods to the mainland, increasing from around $102.45 billion in previous year. And China hosts 12 (Taiwan-owned) Foxconn factories, including the largest in Shenzhen.    

       Meantime, since Taiwan lifted a ban on Chinese investment in June 2009, google your numbers. Ergo: The Chinese (mainlanders or Taiwanese) dictum is straight-through “Business as usual.” And war is bad for business.

       Let’s be honest here though: Is this obvious goading good for a fight, good or necessary to the world? Well, China can easily pull back and resort to “selective isolationism,” they are used to that trick. But given Beijing’s massive investments per Belt and Road Initiative blueprint, what if the Dragon bites the coaxing? What, Beijing gathers its mostly economic allies and Washington converges its military allies, and what do we see? The U.S. already battling Russia, and next China? Remember: China and Russia are BFFs.

       WTH. I rest my case. 🇨🇳🇺🇸🇹🇼

MY THOUGHTS About The News.

Previously posted in my Facebook page. 

New York Sun: “Seattle’s Police-Free Occupied ‘CHAZ’ Zone Is Now Wasteland of Abandoned Buildings, Vandalism, and Homeless Doing ‘Fentanyl Flop’.” During the Occupy movement of 2011, it’d seem the “occupation” of a certain real estate was geared at betterment of life. I offered to write a grant to turn an abandoned building into a community project. Nope. “Occupiers” simply wanted to occupy, that’s all. Hot on idealism, short on practical sense or real toil. 😒😟🤨

New York Times: “How Does Paris Stay Paris? By Pouring Billions Into Public Housing.” Public housing in the U.S. accommodates 2.1 million low-income people in 1.1. million apartments. As of a 2023 HUD report, there are approximately 582,000 Americans experiencing homelessness. Federal housing budget is $3.7 billion, but that’s excluding the budget to house thousands of migrants. Top 3 best public housing systems in the world: Singapore, Sweden, Finland. 🏠🇫🇷🏘

New York Times: “Chicago Begins Evicting Migrants From Shelters, Citing Strain on Resources.” Officials say more than 2,000 people would be evicted by the end of April. Already, U.S. homelessness reached an all-time high in 2023, making many across the country question as to what is being done to address the growing homeless crisis. As the Department of Housing and Urban Development confronts a budget shortfall. Then comes the unabated surge of migrants. 🗽🏃‍♀️🏃

New York Times: “Niger Orders American Troops to Leave Its Territory.” And adds: “The West African country’s military junta said the presence of U.S. forces was “illegal.” Increasingly, West Africans are questioning the motives of Western countries operating in Africa. Also days ago, Zimbabwe officials expelled U.S. election “observers,” accusing them of “promoting regime change.” Meanwhile, China stays as the largest investor in Africa in terms of total capital. 🇳🇪🇳🇪🇳🇪

New York Times: “Ohtani Makes South Korean Fans Forget Rivalry With Japan.” Baseball fans in South Korea seem to embrace Shohei. Cool! Time to heal a history of fierce rivalry. Armed animosity pervaded between these neighbors in the past. The Imjin War of 1592, Japan’s invasion in 1894, and WW2 hostilities. Silent mutual hate. Yet sports, apart from the ability to forge friendships among strangers, also usher forgiveness and healing between enemies. 🇯🇵⚾️🇰🇷

New York Times: “See-Through Baseball Pants Have Fans, and Brands, Pointing Fingers.” And adds: “A redesign of M.L.B.’s uniforms has put Fanatics and Nike at the center of a debate about performance versus quality in sportswear.” More people would crowd a stadium if uniforms are see-through. Uh huh. Cellphone cameras blazing! “See through” is an expression of team politics? Individual truth? Right? As long as it sells and it’s labeled “politically correct,” I guess. ⚾️👖⚾️

New York Times: “No Alternative for Rafah Invasion, Netanyahu Says, as Rift With U.S. Grows.” A day after agreeing to President Biden’s request to send officials to Washington to discuss Rafah, the Israeli PM said “there was no other option but to send forces into the crowded city.” A steely nerve Bibi, unperturbed and defiant? Or a Joe, unable to excise U.S.’ vaunted clout over a top ally? The world watches America more than it awaits Israel to stand down. 🇮🇱☮️🇵🇸

New York Times: “Israel Faces Tough Balancing Act on Russia and the West.” Benjamin Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin aren’t really adversarial although gray areas pervade. Unlike many Western countries, Israel has refused to sanction Russia per invasion of Ukraine. Yet reports of “Moscow's reception of a Hamas delegation” less than two weeks after the Oct. 7 attack prompted concerns in Tel Aviv. But all these offer more intrigue than legitimacy. 🇮🇱☮️🇵🇸

New York Times: “From Moscow to Mumbai: Russia Pivots South for Trade.” And adds: “Once dependent on Europe for trade, Russia has been forging new routes that will allow it to skirt Western restrictions. A planned railway through Iran could be key for those ambitions.” What if BRICS focuses its trade negotiations only with partner economies? And G7 sticks with its allies? You think they’d be lesser military playbooks to influence geopolitics? Just wondering. 🇷🇺🇷🇺🇷🇺

New York Times: “Aid groups have declared Sudan to be the site of the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.” But the suffering Sudanese people have received little help. Tons and tons of food couldn’t get into Gaza as the U.S. et al negotiate with Israel to let `em pass. What’d happen to those piled up food/s? Let them rot? Why not ship them to Sudan, which faces a rapidly deepening crisis. Nearly 18 million people face acute hunger as war rages across the country. 🇸🇩🇸🇩🇸🇩

The HAITI Story.

Previously posted on my Facebook page.

NEWS. “How a French Bank Captured Haiti.” / “French Bank to Study Its Role in Haiti After Times Report.” We are so into Ukraine/Russia, Johnny vs Amber, and (now) Roe… that other issues, albeit global, seem lacking in gravitas. It’s all about what reigns high and hot per media narrative, of course. A lot of stuff and things of equally significant value are happening beyond the cracks of the American couch. Such as in Haiti.

       New York Times adds that C.IC. or Crédit Industriel et Commercial helped finance the Eiffel Tower’s construction by squeezing Haiti’s treasury to near death when the island was a French colony. The Tower was completed in 1887. After 300 years of colonial rule, Haiti gained independence in 1804—which is a good 83 years to the Eiffel Tower.

       The C.I.C., won’t talk about it, but The Times tracked how much its investors made in the late 19th and early 20th centuries — and what Haiti lost. Founded in 1859, the C.I.C. has been majority owned by Crédit Mutuel, one of France’s top five banking groups, since 1998, and fully owned since 2017.

       Well, we are pretty much aware that after a colonizer left, it didn't really abandon its trade interests in its former territory. The milking of resources etcetera continues. So the allegation, which isn’t really hard to believe, is a no brainer. But why, after all these years? Then let’s do politics.

       Haiti is apparently an election runup pitch in France—as the newly elected Emmanuel Macron battles the Left for dominance in Paris’ Parliament. Which he lost. For the first time in 20 years, a French prez who won a second term failed to win an absolute majority in Parliament thereby “…forcing Macron to deal with a defiant left and a resurgent far-right.” 🇭🇹🇭🇹🇭🇹

NOW that election/s in France are over, let’s wait how President Emmanuel Macron and a majority opposition Parliament deal with Haiti, its former colony. I don’t know about that, LOL! Meantime, here is the News: “Invade Haiti, Wall Street Urged. The U.S. Obliged.” New York Times adds: “The long occupation of Haiti began with a drumbeat from the bank that became Citigroup, decades of diplomatic correspondence and other records show.”

       History: Following the assassination of Haitian President Jean Vilbrun Guillaume Sam in 1915, President Woodrow Wilson sent the United States Marines into Haiti to restore order and maintain political and economic stability in the Caribbean. This occupation continued until 1934.

       And so from France’s C.I.C., came City Bank. Google and it’d bring you to City Bank of New York, founded in 1812—onto the National City Bank of New York and Haiti, 1909 – 1922. City Bank’s history in Haiti shows how racial ideology and economic policy have long coalesced to justify colonization in Latin America and the Caribbean, writes UCLA Peter James Hudson. Not easy to question such an assertion.

       Haiti was one of the earliest targets for City Bank’s internationalization. This was part of a wider push into Latin America and the Caribbean that found support in the State Department. The US was then pursuing a policy of “dollar diplomacy,” attempting to use financial muscle to bring political stability to the region. 🇭🇹🇭🇹🇭🇹

BANKS and Haiti. Let’s continue… Giant global banks’ initial investments in nations that obviously wanted aid, like Haiti, came through their participation in the financing of infrastructure projects. Should we go to Bretton Woods of 1944 and the birth of the I.M.F. and World Bank? We don’t need to.

       In the case of Haiti, City Bank et al financed dock and railway projects in 1910. They used these initial investments as a springboard to take over control of Haiti’s economy and financial system, especially through the Banque Nationale d’Haiti, a privately run bank of issue controlled by French and German interests. As City Bank’s investments in Haiti and the Banque Nationale increased, so too did their involvement in Haiti’s internal affairs. And so on and so forth.

       Meanwhile, Haiti remains the poorest country in the LAC (or Latin America and the Caribbean) region and among the poorest countries in the world. In 2021, Haiti had a GDP per capita of $1,815, the lowest in the LAC region and less than a fifth of the LAC average of $15,092. On the UN's Human Development Index, Haiti ranked 170 out of 189 countries.

       Now the current News: “U.S. Accelerated Expulsions of Haitian Migrants in May.” New York Times adds: “The uptick has rekindled criticism that the Biden administration treats Black migrants differently than others, an allegation it denies.” Of course. 🇭🇹🇭🇹🇭🇹

Famous Stuff & Things.

Previously posted on my Facebook Page.

EVENTS in HISTORY. “Proclamation No. 1081” contained the formal proclamation of martial law in the Philippines by President Ferdinand Marcos (d. 1989), as announced on September 23, 1972. That day marked the beginning of a 14-year period of authoritarian rule, which included 8 years of Martial Law (till 1981), followed by six more years of Marcos dictatorship. The Marcos family was finally ousted on February 25, 1986 via a “People Power” Revolution. 🇵🇭🇵🇭🇵🇭

INTERESTING PEOPLE. Jann Wenner (born 1946) is co-founder of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and Rolling Stone magazine, and former owner of Men's Journal etc. A vivid example of Left/liberal mind that plays ideological confection to his sweet advantage. Though I follow the citation icon, the Hall of Fame has faced controversy for eligibility favoritism. Then Jann’s breach of common friendship and (publishing) agreements with John Lennon and Hunter S. Thompson. And more. 😏😒👎

FAMOUS STRUCTURES. The Mount Rushmore National Memorial is a colossal sculpture that features the 60-foot-tall heads of four U.S. presidents: George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt, and Abraham Lincoln. The structure was carved into the granite face of Mount Rushmore in the Black Hills near Keystone, South Dakota. Sculptor Gutzon Borglum designed the sculpture and oversaw the project's execution from 1927 to 1941. 🇺🇸🗽🇺🇸

FAMOUS STRUCTURES. The Leaning Tower of Pisa or Torre Pendente di Pisa in Pisa, Italy is the campanile, or freestanding bell tower, of Pisa Cathedral. It is known for its nearly four-degree lean, the result of an unstable foundation. The height of the tower is 183 feet 3 inches from the ground on the low side 185 ft 11 in on the high side. The identity of the architect of the tower is a subject of controversy. For many years, the design was attributed to Bonanno Pisan. 🇮🇹🙃🇮🇹

BTW, the Leaning Tower of Pizza is different. That pizza was created by my friend Buono in Brooklyn NY. 

ABOUT THE LAW. The Official Secrets Act is a legislation that provides for the protection of state secrets and official information. Based on the U.K. Official Secrets Act 1911, OSAs are currently in-force in over 40 countries, (former British colonies). The U.S. does not have OSA although the Espionage Act of 1917 has similar components. As early as the 16th Century, Queen Elizabeth I declared that all accounts of Francis Drake's circumnavigation were “secrets.” (Visual: GooglePlay.) 😒😞🤐

OSAs are currently in-force in over 40 countries, including Bangladesh, Kenya, Pakistan, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Myanmar, Uganda, Malaysia, Singapore and the United Kingdom, and have previously existed in Canada and New Zealand.

FAMOUS SPORTS EVENTS. “Rumble in the Jungle,” Oct. 30, 1974. Muhammad Ali knocked out George Foreman in the eighth round of a 15-round bout in Kinshasa, Zaire (now, Democratic Republic of Congo). Ali regained his world heavyweight title. In this match, Ali popularized “rope-a-dope” or the bait and switch tactic. He would feign weakness, allowing George to attack him, tired him out. Then Ali sprung to punch Foreman out. 🥊🥊🥊

INTERESTING PEOPLE. Nate Silver (born 1978) is a statistician whose approach uses probabilistic and statistical modeling to understand complex social systems. His data-driven “thoughts” successfully predicted outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. He gave Donald Trump only a 28.6 percent chance of victory in 2016, but this was higher than many other forecasters, including the media. Insight based on data, not partisan zeal. 📝📌🧮

FAMOUS PLACES. Yosemite National Park in California, covers 759,620 acres in four counties, centered in Tuolumne and Mariposa. Designated a World Heritage Site in 1984, Yosemite is internationally recognized for its cliffs, waterfalls, clear streams, giant sequoia groves, lakes, mountains, meadows, glaciers, and biological diversity. Almost 95 percent of the park is designated wilderness. Yosemite is one of the largest and least fragmented habitat blocks in the Sierra Nevada. 🌄🏞🌅

FIRST INVENTIONS. First computer. The Antikythera mechanism is believed to be the earliest known mechanical analog computer. It was designed to calculate astronomical positions. It was discovered in 1901 in a wreck off the Greek island of Antikythera, and has been dated to c. 100 BCE. Charles Babbage, an English mechanical engineer, is considered the "father of the computer.” He conceptualized and invented the first mechanical computer in the early 19th century. 💽💻📀

FASCINATING PEOPLE. Tallest man: Robert Pershing Wadlow, born in 1918 in Alton, Illinois. Robert’s height was 8 ft 11.1 in while his weight reached 439 lb at his death at age 22 in 1940. His coffin measured 10 ft 9 in long by 2 ft 8 in wide by 2 ft 6 in deep. During a professional appearance at a festival in Michigan, a faulty brace irritated his ankle, leading to infection. He was treated with blood transfusion and surgery, but his condition worsened. He later died in his sleep. 😟🙁☹️

Photo credits: HubPages. CNN. HackerEarth.

The FRANCE Story.

Previously posted on my Facebook page. Or before the current change of leadership in France and the Paris Olympics. 

NEWS. “France’s Far Right Surges Into Parliament, and Further Into the Mainstream.” / “Macron Loses Absolute Majority as Opposition Surges, a Blow for New Term.” For the first time in 20 years, a newly elected French president failed to win an absolute majority in Parliament. That’d mean Macron has to deal with a defiant Left and a resurgent Far Right. Meanwhile, vanquished rival Marine Le Pen’s National Rally secures a formidable spot to launch a power balance.

       Anyhow, I don’t concur with media’s fascination with stereotyping academic lores. The global sociopolitical mindset is fast-changing and its interface has blurred the ism. Who are Left and who are Far-Right in the context of France, and where do we place Monsieur Emmanuel then?

       Those ism boxes don’t really matter much in Europe as it wrestles with a plethora of issues. Barely surviving the debt crisis of 2008 and the ensuing migrant problem and rising doubts in/around European Union’s credibility as a financial mechanism, came the Covid pandemic. Now, the Ukraine War.

       Wider divisions only blur recovery. Meantime, France’s economy is slowing more than previously expected as industries suffer from soaring energy costs and worsening supply constraints following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Macron has got to sit with his political rivals in the Parliament to fix the right here, right now problem. 🇫🇷🚘🇫🇷

FRANCE is not a major importer of Russian energy resources but a prolonged war in Ukraine would be costly. Still, refined petroleum is the 3rd most imported product in France. France imports this fuel primarily from Russia.

       And while other sellers in the region Netherlands, Belgium, and Spain are also encountering shortages, Russia looms valuable. Of course, there is Saudi Arabia and the U.S. but that is, if they could match Moscow’s way-down cheaper price tags.

       Emmanuel Macron has previously asked Volodymyr Zelensky to explore more diplomatic channels with Russian emissaries toward end of war but the Ukraine leader said no. And why not? Should I discuss the dirt in Kyiv’s leadership before and during Zelensky, and prior to Vladimir Putin’s invasion?

       Yet France’s GDP growth, coming from Covid years, is still a fine 4 percent although unemployment is at 7.3 percent. Inflation at 5.2 percent is below E.U. average of 8.2 percent.    

       But as I said, a continuing war—and China’s current business lockdown which exacerbate supply snarls—wouldn’t be good for France. Not unless Macron and the opposition Parliament set aside political self-righteousness in favor of economic smarts for the 67 million population. 🇫🇷🚘🇫🇷

ECONOMIC damage can be fixed. But what France—and the entirety of Europe—face which isn’t so easy to repair is people discontent with European Union leadership’s liberal embrace of surging migrants/refugees. A “better” economy isn’t enough to crush Europe’s individual populist/nationalism. Just a fact.

       And here is another inflow of migrants, coming from Ukraine. The United Nations estimated that in two months, from the outbreak of war in February, there would be 7.5 million internally displaced people in Ukraine, millions would be in need of healthcare and the number of people fleeing the war could reach 4 million. Recent number: As of 4 July, more than 5.2 million refugees from Ukraine have been recorded across Europe, and rapidly rising.

       As TIME’s Ian Bremmer writes few years ago, amidst the European migrant crisis: “There are now two Europes. The first is home to those committed to common political values, shared burdens and an ever closer European Union. The second is for those who see national and European values in almost constant conflict, who say each nation should solve its own problems, whatever the cost to the dream of `Europe whole and free.’”

       This widening divide, intensified by a rising wave of Middle Eastern migrants, poses the most dangerous challenge the union has ever faced. Which Emmanuel Macron and his divided government confront. Already, U.K.’s Boris Johnson got burned by the heat, and resigned. 🇫🇷🚘🇫🇷

The COLOMBIA Story.

Previously posted on my Facebook page. Not updated.

NEWS. “Gustavo Petro wins the Colombian election, becoming the country’s first leftist president.” News adds: “The victory by the former rebel sets the third-largest nation in Latin America on a new path.” I don’t feel any weight on “Leftist” prez whatsoever. As 21st century strode in, we blurred the ism line no matter how media continually draw/s us to paradigm stereotypes. None of that figure in my head, not anymore.

       China is capitalism with a bit of “Common Prosperity” modification in between. Russia shed its hardline apparatchik girth to sell its crude oil and natural gas a-la market economics of the West. And what about oil-rich Middle East? Or the vaunted Asian Tigers? Goodbye, cultural/religious exclusivity. Compromise, interface, rebranding work.

       Patron Petro could be a Leftist revolutionary then. But the present time requires leadership acumen that goes left to right and center and wherever in practical agility per needed. Right here and right now. And this is Gustavo’s board: GDP growth rate is 6 percent, higher than the U.S. right now. But unemployment is 11.2 percent. And other pressing issues per heightened superpower benefactors’ “war” of narcissism. 🇨🇴🇨🇴🇨🇴

LET’s cut to the chase: Colombia is, no doubt, United States’ best bet in Latin/South America, especially following the recent lukewarm Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles, hosted by President Biden.

       Top leaders of the region snubbed Potus or simply were out. Mexico, Honduras, Bolivia, El Salvador, Cuba, and Nicaragua. Others sent “token” diplomatic representation. How Biden would work around these facts, and how Petro reacts and responds, are what interest me. Remember, Senor Gustavo campaigned on several promises that run counter to years of U.S.-Colombia relations.

       Yet in the background, here are pertinent facts: Colombia is 4th top U.S. oil importer, dislodging Russia out of the Top 10 due to the obvious. Colombia is the only NATO member and top recipient of US aid in the region. Clearly, Colombia has long been one of Washington's closest allies in Latin America. Pre-2022 change of leadership, Bogota could be the best Washington buddy in the Americas. 🇨🇴🇨🇴🇨🇴

BESIDES what I mentioned below in the area of trade and security, Colombia and the United States had close dealings on the Venezuelan migrant crisis and the fight against the illegal drug trade. But would these still hold with Petro on Bogota’s steering wheel?

       Consider that Petro seeks reestablishing Bogotá’s direct relationship with Caracas per the election runup. Take note as well that Petro has strongly criticized the U.S. policy in Latin America on narcos, which has focused on the eradication of crops and the extradition of cartel leaders. He instead wants to legalize medicinal marijuana and create more economic incentives so impoverished farmworkers don’t see the coca plant as their only choice for livelihood.

       Petro, a former guerrilla fighter, also proposed reopening peace talks with the ELN rebel group as another step in “peacefully dismantling drug-trafficking.” But Washington has dismissed the ELN as a terrorist organization.

       President Biden could probably explore “climate change,” which is a cornerstone of Petro's promised policies. But that’d be less priority in Petro’s agenda: He has to live up to the expectations of voters who shunned the traditional parties over worsening inequality and persistent violence. First things first.

       For Biden to still hold on Bogota? Talk about the oil. Rest the security pitch. Talk economics. Oil. I am sure Gustavo Petro would love to talk more of that. 🇨🇴🇨🇴🇨🇴

Visual: BBC. Local Travel Agency in Colombia. iStock.