Thailand’s Economic Story.

Previously posted on my Facebook page. Not updated. 

HISTORICALLY known as Siam, Thailand, located in Southeast Asia, is an old country that has never been colonized despite European conquests of most of the region in the past. European contact began in 1511 with a Portuguese diplomatic mission to Ayutthaya, which became a regional power by the end of the 15th century. Ayutthaya reached its peak during cosmopolitan Narai's reign, gradually declining thereafter until being ultimately destroyed in the Burmese–Siamese War.

       Yet Siam/Thailand, then and now, remains as one of a few countries that was never conquered by a foreign power. Not unless it is all about economics.

       The 1997–98 Asian financial crisis began in Thailand and then quickly spread to neighboring economies. It began as a currency crisis when Bangkok unpegged the Thai baht from the U.S. dollar, setting off a series of currency devaluations and massive flights of capital. Thai bhat, that time, reached almost 53.

       That crisis could be happening again. Economists predict that Thailand is expectedly to be one of the first to be impacted if the U.S. falls into a recession. Already, as we speak, as the U.S. struggles to get off decades-high inflation, Thai bhat is now at 38—down 22 percent compared with three years ago, before the pandemic. The record low was 22 in 1978. 🇹🇭🇹🇭🇹🇭

THAILAND relies heavily on tourism for its economic growth. Tourist spending accounted for approximately 11 percent of Thailand’s GDP in 2019, or before the pandemic. The country welcomed almost 40 million visitors that year and generated more than $60 billion in revenue, according to World Bank data. Most of tourism’s drivers are Chinese visitors but with Covid travel restrictions in place in Beijing these days, Bangkok only sees darkness.

       Economists who watched the 1997 currency crash say Thailand’s current downturn predictably follows, after Singapore. Thailand’s inflation rate is at a 14-year high of 7.86 percent. After Singapore and Thailand, next to go down in the region are the economies of Indonesia and the Philippines, due to their “domestic oriented economies.”

       Economics is complex and I don’t claim I know much. I just read. The rising strength of the U.S. dollar, which has been appreciating against other currencies since last year but began rising particularly rapidly this summer, is the result of multiple causes. Foremost of which is the decision by U.S. central bankers at the Federal Reserve to begin aggressively raising interest rates to fight inflation.

       The Federal Reserve’s determination to crush inflation at home by raising interest rates is inflicting pain in other countries — pushing up prices, ballooning the size of debt payments and increasing the risk of a deep recession.

       Interest rate increases are pumping up the value of the dollar — the go-to currency for much of the world’s trade and transactions — and causing economic turmoil in both rich and poor nations. In Britain and across much of the European continent, the dollar’s acceleration is helping feed stinging inflation. 🇹🇭🇹🇭🇹🇭

THAILAND’s chief industries are machinery, electronics, foods and wood, chemicals and plastics, automobiles and automotive parts, stone and glass, textiles and furniture. Investments by foreign businesses soared by nearly 75 percent during the first half of 2022 compared to the same period last year as companies.

       Investment is one of the three key pillars of the Thai economy, along with exports and consumption. The sharp rise in the value of foreign investments is a sign that global businesses still see Thailand as a competitive location for their operations. Until the U.S suffers its own economic problem/s.

       Top three trading partners: United States, China, Japan. As Bangkok’s top trade buddy, Washington has showered the former with attention in recent years. In June this year, Thailand joined 12 other countries in signing up to the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), a diverse trade platform that will now be negotiated among partners over the next 18 months.

       The dependency with U.S. investments, however, is majorly blamed for the current currency crash. For one, imports from the U.S. have grown costly etc etcetera. 🇹🇭🇹🇭🇹🇭

ANYHOW, the power struggle between the United States and China is a loud reality in Thailand as both superpowers escalate presence in the country. Although the U.S. is ahead in FDIs, China remains as an important ally to Thailand, partly because of its influence and prominence in the region.

       Trade between Beijing and Bangkok has risen fast in the last few decades. Bilateral trade in 1999 was worth $4.22 billion. Fast forward: China exports to Thailand last year was a whopping $69.36 billion against a mere $5.2 billion in Thai imports.

       China also has military relations with Thailand. Among other deals, in 2017, the Royal Thai Navy signed a contract with the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation for a S26T diesel-electric submarine, which is derived from the Type 039A submarine. The submarine is expected to be delivered in 2023.

       I can discuss this more and connect it with the 1997 currency crash (with emphasis on George Soros’ dubious “speculative investing”) but suffice to say that, these days, foreign military subjugation doesn’t define invasion. It’s all economics.

       For the meantime, the bigger news in Thailand is this horror: “After Day Care Massacre, Thailand Is Roiled With Grief.” News adds: “Anguished families were coming to terms with the loss of their young children as the nation pondered issues like gun violence and the widespread availability of deadly weapons.” 🇹🇭🇹🇭🇹🇭

BURKINA FASO.

NEWS: “After Coup in Burkina Faso, Protesters Turn to Russia for Help.” / “Military Takes Power in West African Nation of Burkina Faso.” Mutinous officers claim that the public was fed up with President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré because of his inability to stop attacks by Islamist militants. And the military organization is fed up as well with France, former colonizer and now supposedly a benefactor, to stop the violence so now they call for Russia’s help.

       Burkina Faso has been severely affected by the rise of Islamist terror in the Sahel since the mid-2010s. Terrorist activity primarily involves religious terrorism conducted by foreign-based organizations, mostly concentrated in the Hauts-Bassins, Boucle du Mouhoun, Nord, Sahel, and Est regions, along the border with Mali and Niger.

       A series of attacks in Ouagadougou in 2016, 2017, and 2018 by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and its affiliates was particularly deadly, garnering international attention. And, of course, Washington’s (re)focus of military focus from Afghanistan and Syria to this region, also in pursuit of Boko Haram northeastern Nigeria, and Al-Shabaab in Somalia.

       While the majority of the violence is blamed on terrorism, communal frustration among the 21 million population over the lack of economic development is also a tremendous contributory factor in the strife.

       In its early years, Burkina Faso was subject to instability, droughts, famines and corruption. Various coups have also taken place: 1966, 1980, 1982, 1983, 1987, an attempt in 1989, 2015, and this year.

       But why seek Russian intervention? Turns out, the two countries have a history of cordial relations. However, Vladimir Putin is obviously very busy with Ukraine to pay attention beyond, for now. 🇧🇫☮️🇧🇫

NOT entirely unexpected that Ouagadougou calls out for Moscow’s help in these times of trouble. Diplomatic relations between Burkina Faso and the Soviet Union were established in 1967. And then after the breakup of the USSR, Burkina Faso recognized Russia as the Soviets’ successor.

       However, despite token economic exchange as well as cultural interface by way of Russia’s offer of educational opportunities in Moscow for Burkina Faso students, Ouagadougou’s top trading partners are not the Kremlin. Burkina Faso’s main business ally is its neighbor Cote d'Ivoire, followed by China (surprise!) Ghana, France, and India.

       In recent years, Burkina Faso's mining industry has been expanding and is now the most important sector of the economy. Main exports are gold, which comprise 70 percent of total exports, plus cotton, zinc, phosphate rock, and livestock. Although China has already sunk investment in the country, it hasn’t really followed through due to pressing issues, utmost is the continuing internal strife.

       Ouagadougou is the only African state to have twice recognized the Republic of China or Taiwan: in 1964 and in 1994. As a result, Taiwan helped finance some of Burkina Faso leaderships’ political programs to the detriment of the People's Republic of China in Beijing. Yet in 2018, Burkina Faso cut ties with Taiwan and then re-established diplomatic relations with the Mainland.

       Beijing, meantime, is very wary of the active terrorism in the region—but expressed willingness to provide assistance if Ouagadougou fights terror groups and safeguard national security. Wait and see. China doesn’t normally gamble FDIs in countries beset by conflict. And as the usual case, it is the U.S. that takes care of that troublesome political gig. This time though, Burkina Faso is calling on Russia, which is of course a BFF of China, to fix its mess. 🇧🇫☮️🇧🇫

APPARENTLY, Russia or President Vladimir Putin is busy with the Ukraine situation to give attention to Burkina Faso. Meantime, the United States’ presence in BF is more via Peace Corps programs and Washington’s aid to the constantly beleaguered nation is still extremely limited although investment possibilities exist, especially in the mining and communications sectors. But when?

       Which brings us to China. In 2018 or prior to Covid-19 pandemic, Beijing unveiled a whopping $60 billion African aid package, all related to the Belt and Road Africa infrastructure development fund. The budget has long surged as BRI pushes through.

       Before all these, the IMF has declared Africa the world’s second-fastest growing region, and many are predicting that it is well on its way to becoming a $5 trillion economy, as household consumption is expected to increase at a 3.8 percent yearly clip to $2.1 trillion by 2025. The attention of the world is now drifting towards Africa. Regardless of the political instability, China coming-in is no longer a radical projection. Beijing is very interested.

        Besides, despite internal troubles, Burkina Faso still registers a fine GDP growth rate of 6.67 percent, a huge jump from 2020’s and 1.93 percent and 2019’s 5.7 percent. Also, the country, which is around the geographic size of Nevada, is relatively easier to handle, per infrastructure upgrade.

       However, it would seem Burkina Faso has no choice. It seeks Russia’s help but Moscow is into Ukraine at this moment. As ever, smaller/poorer nations will have to wait till the larger geopolitical catfight subsides or ends before their “benefactors” could put attention on them. But knowing China, it quietly courses its moves with certainty on the sideline—as we view the Ukraine Drama. 🇧🇫☮️🇧🇫

MY THOUGHTS about the NEWS.

Previously posted on my Facebook Page.

NY Times: “Trump Wants to Shake Up Health Care. Many Americans Don’t Mind.” Voters galvanized by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s pledge to “Make America Healthy Again” said they believed the health establishment “was dismissive and even corrupt.” Modifications and changes in Health Care are imperatives. Yet I would rather wait and see what RFK Jr. would be actually doing. (Visual: Forbes.) 

       News adds: “Donald Trump already had an edge among young white men four years ago, although he widened the gap this year. His support among both groups increased by about 20 percentage points this year, according to AP VoteCast — and their feelings toward Trump got warmer, too.” 🏛🗽🏛

New York Sun: “Could Mayor Adams of New York Make His Way Back to the GOP?” Not new and surprising in the universe of traditional politics, isn’t it? Anywhere in the world. Turncoatism etcetera. But first, Mr Adams has to earn a pardon from Papa Joe, LOL! And then Papa Don will see. Anyhow, Eric’s New York future or political tomorrow is hazy. An example of the state's underperforming Dems. 🏛🗽🏛

Washington Post: “Trump hesitates to personally lobby for endangered Cabinet picks.” It'd seem Don–with the obvious advice of Elon and Vivek--tossed gambits and “bait and switch” tactics out there with these nominees to test the playing field on Trump Part 2. Even if some are eventually hired, we know that the incoming POTUS can easily fire them. But I still give them the benefit of the doubt, in case they’re confirmed. 🏛🗽🏛

New York Times: “Tim Walz Says He Was ‘a Little Surprised’ Trump Won.” I admit, I was surprised or overwhelmed in 2016 that Donald Trump won over Hillary Clinton. Then, I was somehow surprised that Joe Biden beat him in 2020. This year? Nope. I am not surprised at all that he clobbered Kamala Harris and the Dems, trifecta in fact, despite their runaway advantage in PAC money, like they always did. 🏛🗽🏛

New York Times: “The Supervillain Is the Hero Now.” News adds: “How Americans learned to root for the dark side — from the Joker and `Wicked’ to Elon Musk.” What makes Elon the supervillain? Of course we all know that already. He hooked up with the most hated dude by the Left side of the glade. Yet what has Mr Musk done (or didn't do) that makes him different from the other 800 U.S. billionaires? 😒💸🥹

Associated Press: “University admissions: California bill would give public university admission priority to slaves’ descendants.” That'd mean ALL African-Americans, I reckon. But many Asians have been enslaved as well during colonization years. Etc etcetera. California, ah California! The overreach for ideological purity (sic!) is unbelievably whacked. Why don’t they fix gut-related problems, instead? Homelessness? 😏😒🤨

Rolling Stone: “Timothée Chalamet Says Bob Dylan Is 'A Fantastic Singer'. Here's How He Learned to Sing Like Him.” Sweetly intriguing, indeed! After a few minutes of some of his movies, I am still hardly a fan of Mr Chalamet (not yet?) He sang all the Bob Dylan songs in this movie. That's enough reason to see “A Complete Unknown” the moment it is available. (And Mr Dylan himself aided in making this movie.) 🎥📹📽

AP: “Trump calls for 'immediate' cease-fire in Ukraine and says a US withdrawal from NATO is possible.” As Joe Biden stokes more fire in Ukraine, Mr Trump works to end it. My favored side is VERY clear here: The D’s dove negates his “eerie” POTUS mouth. The East Bloc’s Warsaw Pact ended in 1991. NATO would have ended, too. Need I type up how much taxpayer money is wasted in military machismo? ☮️☮️☮️

AP: “Syrian government falls in stunning end to 50-year Assad family rule.” The Syrian Prime Minister said the government is ready to “extend its hand” to the opposition and hand over power to a transitional government. Middle East bottlenecks: Syria and Iran. Now, Bashar al-Assad is out. Long time coming. Meanwhile, Iran’s new moderate leadership would be no brainer as Donald Trump sits. (Photo: CTTO.) ☮️☮️☮️

New York Times: “Could Trump Make the Ultimate Deal With Iran?” New talks should relax the nuke (or WMD) agenda, without taking it out of the first page. Iran is obviously hobbling and gasping economically for years now, even before Covid. China's continuous purchase of Tehran's oil keeps the country above neck-deep murk. So I concur that the tandem of Musk/Ramaswamy sits with Iran's new moderate leadership. 🇺🇸☮️🇮🇷

MY THOUGHTS about the NEWS.

Previously posted on my Facebook Page.

Time: “Trump Is Welcomed by French President Macron in Paris as Zelensky Joins Their Meeting.” Two beleaguered heads of state that are now wanting real POTUS help. The time to show the world that the U.S. still rules the universe, at least politically. A foreign affairs terrain that Joe Biden obviously ruined for America. Ukraine post-war would be in ruins. And France is currently in a political mess. Let's see. 🇷🇺🇺🇦🇺🇸

NY Times: “Collapse of France’s Government Further Burdens Its Weak Economy.” Already struggling with flat growth and a large debt and deficit, the country faces a new period of instability. The European Union’s collective economy, mired at 0.4 percent, needs utmost attention. France's turmoil is similar to what’s going on in Germany and the U.K. First in the agenda: Stop military aid to Ukraine and help end that war. 🇺🇳🇫🇷🇺🇳

New York Times: “The Far Right Just Toppled France’s Government, and Nobody Knows What Happens Next.” Too much ideological overreach over gut-level realities. That'd be the foremost blunder of the Left. Meanwhile, the media's obsession with stereotyping people's sentiment as populist Right takes us away from where life really breathes. No alignment, no politics: And economic life in Europe has been hobbling. Fact. 🇫🇷🇫🇷🇫🇷

Time: “When College Kids Can’t Afford Food.” Repeat: In America? Where 40 percent of food is wasted? A large amount of food that could feed people in need, and that is instead sent to landfills. Reasons behind the “free lunch” debate in grade schools are mostly political but college “kids,” you reckon? Or the high-maintenance “wellness” diet that they prefer is beyond their budget. Otherwise food is a-plenty. 😏🍲🤨

NY Times: “No One Should Go Hungry in America.” Lawmakers try to find long-term solutions to food insecurity. Feeding America fills some void. Meanwhile, a huge 40 percent of consumable food in America are tossed to landfills, annually. So availability of food isn't the issue. Here, in the house, we are prepared for three zombie apocalypses, LOL! Meanwhile, pickiness for dinner chow could make brat people hungry, indeed. 🥑🗽🍲

Washington Post: “Teen son is nasty to his parents, polite to the rest of the world.” I know of many friends--or people that I actually know in person, long before Facebook was born–who are so polite to their family but the exact opposite on Facebook. Some, I had to unfriend before we totally erase what remains of our friendship. Yet many have disowned family and friends due to differences in opinions and beliefs here. 😏😒🤨

RS: “Internet Takes Lack of Sympathy Further, Thirsts Over Suspect in Health Insurance CEO shooting.” / WP: “The UHC CEO was killed. Why did some people celebrate?” Given, Brian Thompson is evil as in Big Business is Evil. Would it justify vigilantism or “Let's take the evil guy out!” pop culture fix? Some exalt the death. Ponder: Unabated mass shootings and continued arms aid to two ongoing wars. (Photo: ABC.) ☮️🤨☮️

New York Sun: “Can America Afford To Risk Six More Weeks of Biden in the White House?” Pardon of the errant son is a huge concern, sure. My main worry is Joe's intent to escalate hostilities in Ukraine as peace efforts start to gain traction. His okay to authorize Ukraine to use powerful long-range American weapons versus Russia is feared to gain a parallel thumbs up in the Middle East as tempest in Syria escalates. 🏛🗽🏛

NY Times: “Ukraine Makes a Case to Trump’s Team as Its Officials Visit U.S.” The only case that Team Zelensky can put on the table in Trump’s Washington is the end to the war. Of course, Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin are no brainers to Donald. What I see on my pragmatic board: U.S. energy biggies handle Naftogaz, Gazprom operates Nord Stream 2 per EU market, no NATO entry to Kyiv, election in Ukraine. 🇷🇺☮️🇺🇦

AP: “Desertion threatens to starve Ukraine’s forces at a crucial time in its war with Russia.” No need to discourse why wars need to end or prevent them from happening at all. Apparently, Ukraine's soldiers are tired and frustrated trying to win a war that can't be won. Yet it'd seem before Joe Biden goes, he is “leaving” utter destruction and deaths behind, posing deterrents to Donald Trump’s contrary playbook. 🇷🇺☮️🇺🇦

FAVORITES and INFLUENCES.

Previously posted on my Facebook Page.

FAVORITES. Libraries. Primal attraction: Books. The aloneness quiet yet I can still feel the people vibe or communal intimacy. When I was a little boy, a trip to the library (or bookstore) was a lot more exciting than a dozen visits to a grocery, hardware, or even the crowded playground. Many times, I’d just wander inside the library and skim through the shelves, reading titles of the books, daydreaming that in the future I will own my own library. 📚🏫📚

INFLUENCES. Henri Matisse (1869 – 1954). French visual artist, known for his use of vibrant colors. He was also a draftsman, printmaker, and sculptor. Monsieur Matisse is commonly regarded, along with Pablo Picasso, as one of the artists who best helped to define the revolutionary developments in the visual arts throughout the opening decades of the 20th century. Henri’s intense “colourism” art, from 1900 to 1905, hugely influenced my “art pretensions.” 🎨🎨🎨

FAVORITES. Flowers. I always love flowers. Stereotypes and “appropriation” say flowers are feminine. I don’t concur. Flowers are you and me. Male, female, your gender identification. I grew up in/around flowers. My Grandma Luz used to tend and maintain a flower garden around her house in suburban Manila. Roses, orchids, magnolias, zinnias, gumamelas etcetera punctuated by bougainvilleas. My chore was watering them everyday, after school. Love/d it! 💐🎍💐

INFLUENCES. Bison or buffalo in the United States and Canada. A significant resource for indigenous peoples of North America for food and raw materials until near extinction in the late 19th century. For the indigenous peoples of the Plains, it was their principal food source. Tribes highly valued their relationship with the bison and saw them as sacred, treating them respectfully to ensure their abundance and longevity. The equivalent in the Philippines: The carabao. 🦬🐃🦬

FAVORITES. Vinyl record a.k.a. phonograph record. The first commercially sold disc records were created by Emile Berliner in the 1880s. Thanks, Emile! I will never lose my love for “plaka” or LPs and 45 RPMs. Grew up with those. The turntable was busy-busy everyday, especially on weekends. I still use a (portable Victrola) turntable and sift through piles and rows of vinyls in thrift shops and Goodwill. I don’t mind the hisses, scratches, and low-q audio. 🎼🎼🎼

INFLUENCES. “Walden” by Henry David Thoreau. Published in 1854, the book is a reflection of simple living in natural surroundings. “Walden” details Mr Thoreau's experiences in a cabin he built near Walden Pond amidst woodland owned by his friend Ralph Waldo Emerson, near Concord in Massachusetts. The work is part personal declaration of independence, social experiment, voyage of spiritual discovery, satire, and a manual for self-reliance. 🍃📚🏕

FAVORITES. Newsprints. Or paper made chiefly from groundwood pulp and used mostly for newspapers. Many categorize newsprint as “cheap and low-quality” but I favor/ed this paper. Even before journalism went internet or electronic, I preferred “newsprints” over glossy pages. Pulp, raw, earth-bound, indie, local. When I evolved into a co-publisher of a number of publications, I insisted on “primitive” newsprints over the “chic” flash of shiny, glitzy gloss. Still, I do. (Photo: Fosters.) 📜🗞📰

INFLUENCES. Jean-Michel Basquiat, neo-expressionist artist. Mr Basquiat first achieved notice in the late 1970s as part of the graffiti duo SAMO, with Al Diaz, writing enigmatic epigrams all over Manhattan’s Lower East Side. By the early 1980s, he was globally famous. His art focused on dichotomies such as wealth versus poverty, integration versus segregation, and inner versus outer experience. Jean-Paul died in 1988 at the age of 27 of a heroin overdose. (Photo: CultureFrontier.) 🎨🎨🎨

FAVORITES. Organizing events. Gathering people. Concerts, readings, art exhibitions, discussions. My enigma, contradiction, and paradox since I prefer aloneness. But I dig watching people converge for a good cause. “Political” is a matter of opinion. I formed the Traveling Bonfires in the northern mountains of the Philippines amidst typhoons and (countryside) war. Warmth in the cold, light in the dark. The Bonfires in the U.S. traveled coast to coast for years. (Photo: My file.) ☮️🔥🎼

INFLUENCES. Leonardo da Vinci (1452 – 1519) was an Italian polymath, or whose knowledge spans a substantial number of subjects. Leonardo was educated in Florence by the Italian artist Andrea del Verrocchio. While his fame initially rested on his achievements as a painter, he has also made drawings and notes on a variety of subjects, including anatomy, astronomy, botany, cartography, painting, and paleontology. A genius of the Renaissance ideal. (Visual: Shortform.) 📚🍎🎼

(Photos: Halifax Libraries. Target.)

The SUDAN Story.

Previously posted on my Facebook page. Not updated.

NEWS: “Violence Rages in Sudan’s Darfur Two Decades On.” And adds: “The resurgence of ethnically motivated attacks in the country’s restive western region has led to enormous displacement and a growing humanitarian crisis.” 

WHILE we are busy with our emphatic drama on Ukraine, as the media continually feed us stuff to hate Vladimir Putin the more, bloody violence in Sudan or the Sahel Region hasn’t really subsided. Before Kyiv blew up again, troops pulled out of Afghanistan were simply relocated to 750 U.S. military bases abroad.

       Sure, the current tempest in Eastern Europe is hot because Putin is the anti-hero. Geopolitical power play marquee. Meantime, my ice-cold pragmatism insists: Do we really care about what’s going on in Africa? 6 million deaths annually from deadly diseases before Covid? And nonstop violence tooled by Western armory? Do we?

       Let’s revisit Darfur or the War in Darfur, a major armed conflict in Sudan that began in early 2003. Apparently, the mayhem out there was overshadowed by the U.S. invasion of Iraq in March that year. The Sudan issue was a war between rebels associated with the Sudan Liberation Movement and the Justice and Equality Movement versus the government of Sudan. Both SLM and JEM accused the Khartoum leadership of ethnic cleansing against Darfur's non-Arab population.

       The crisis resulted in the death of hundreds of thousands of civilians and the indictment of Sudan's president, Omar al-Bashir, for genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court. Mr al-Bashir was taken out by the military in the spring of 2019. But the horror didn’t end there. 🇸🇩🇸🇩🇸🇩

DARFUR could be the “poster of the macabre” but Sudan per se is in bloody turmoil even after military strongman Omar al-Bashir was ousted via a successful putsch in 2019.

       From August 2021, the country was jointly led by Chairman of the Transitional Sovereign Council, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok. But in Sept last year, a failed attempt at a coup d’état from the military again ensued and led to the arrest of 40 military officers. A month after, another violent hassle rocked again (!) and resulted in the capture of the civilian government, including (now) former Prime Minister Hamdok. The coup was led by general Abdel Fattah al-Burhan (whoa!) who subsequently declared a state of emergency.

       The confused craziness wasn’t over. In November last year, Hamdok was reinstated as prime minister after a political agreement was signed by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan to restore the transition to civilian rule, with Burhan retaining control. Apparently, the political animosities don’t easily end. Hamdok resigned as PM in January.

       Current tally of darkness: By March, 2022 over 1,000 people including 148 children and 144 women had been detained for opposing the coup, there were 25 allegations of rape and 87 people had been killed including 11 children. But, of course, we don’t really read this kind of news because our mind is all over Ukraine. 🇸🇩🇸🇩🇸🇩

AS the usual case, Washington’s premium interest on Sudan and the region—is to correct it, politically. No interest at all in economics. As armed conflicts rage, refugee resettlement is the focal goal over stabilization via end of wars. Such a template hasn't proven effective in recent years. Policy disagreements mar, delay, or downplay U.S. humanitarian aid to Sudan throughout the last quarter of the 20th century.

       For fiscal years 2005–2006, the U.S. committed almost $2.6 billion to Sudan for humanitarian assistance and peacekeeping in Darfur as well as support for the implementation of the peace accord and reconstruction and development in southern Sudan. Yet these haven’t worked so far.

       Then there’s the sanctions. Sudan was added to the State Sponsors of Terrorism list in 1993, alleging that Sudan harbored members of the Abu Nidal Organization, Hezbollah, and Islamic Jihad. As violence in Darfur worsened, larger economic sanctions were handed out in 2007.

       However, in Obama time in 2009, the U.S. released new conditions to ease sanctions. But these only resulted into two Sudans: Sudan and South Sudan.

       In 2019 or 2020, Trump removed Sudan from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list after Sudan agreed to pay $335 million in compensation to the families of victims of the 1998 United States embassy bombings. And then, here comes another bloody ruckus.

       What mystifies, as ever, is the presence of China in the background—of course, by way of economics--while maintaining hands-off politics in Sudan and South Sudan. Politics is Washington’s gig. Beijing certainly doesn’t mind. 🇸🇩🇸🇩🇸🇩

NEWS: “Violence Rages in Sudan’s Darfur Two Decades On.” But Chinese investments don’t seem to mind. While the U.S. puts emphasis on geopolitical cleaning-up of the world as in what remains of Sudan, China ups its trade mojo. Beijing may traditionally say “…nah ah!” when a business prospect country is mired in political strife but Sudan and South Sudan are exceptions, it seems.

       Despite the challenges of working in a war zone, China dominates what analysts have assessed as the third largest oil reserves in Africa. Boom.

       By now we know that China’s success in Africa—or in other regions—comes from its tendency to ignore stuff like human rights and international law. Such an approach aids Beijing’s foreign policy blueprint via the Belt and Road Initiative, a project designed to expand China’s sphere of influence in the Global South.

       International Crisis Group, Brussels: “In the wake of Sudan’s partition, Beijing has accelerated a re-orientation of its engagement in the resulting two states, most significantly through a new courtship in Juba. China’s historical support for Khartoum left a sour legacy in the South, but the potential for mutual economic benefit means a new chapter in bilateral relations is now being written. Balancing new friends in Juba with old friends in Khartoum, however, has proven a delicate dance.”

       Which the Dragon doesn’t mind. Apparently. 🇸🇩🇸🇩🇸🇩

SUDAN has a population of almost 44 million. The country’s GDP growth rate is within the region’s average of 3.4 percent, that is low per global standard. The ideal GDP growth depends on the country and its economic expansion cycle, which means 2 percent in the U.S. is considered “healthy.” Anyhow, no matter how high the economic spike is, if goodness doesn’t benefit the people but its few wealthy, what is the point?

       Sudan’s unemployment rate of 17.10 percent is almost 3 times the Africa’s average of 6 percent. Although the country has formidable economic chips: Oil, cotton ginning, textiles, cement, edible oils, sugar, soap distilling, shoes, petroleum refining, pharmaceuticals, armaments, automobile/light truck assembly, milling. The country’s top trading partners: United Arab Emirates, China, Saudi Arabia, Egypt—with the Chinese rapidly gaining.

       Meanwhile, Sudan and South Sudan’s conflict reminds us of Ukraine and Russia vis a vis Kyiv’s Naftogaz and Moscow’s Gazprom.

       Upon independence in 2011, South Sudan secured three-quarters of the oil held by the once unified nation which immediately caused a number of disputes, cross-border violence, and failed negotiation attempts. In order for the oil from South Sudan to be exported, it had to first travel to refineries in Khartoum and be transferred to port terminals in Port Sudan.

       The price of this transportation was unsettled before the separation of the state which caused disputes that escalated in January 2012 when the Sudanese government claimed that Juba owed $1 billion in unpaid fees. South Sudan countered that Khartoum stole $815 million worth of oil from their territory. And so on and so forth. You may google the rest but the two Sudans “agreed” somehow.

       Then there’s China in between as an economic mediator, kinda. 🇸🇩🇸🇩🇸🇩

IN August 2017, it was reported that Chinese investments in Sudan's oil sector had surpassed $15 billion and that both countries remained committed to cooperating with each other as Sudan was ready to overcome any obstacles in further Chinese investment and China was ready to face challenges regarding Sudan's debt and consequences from the separation of South Sudan. There you go, right?

       The inflow of China's foreign direct investments (FDI) in Sudan (before the separation) began in 1996 and was primarily driven by oil investments. Even non-oil FDI which was directed towards the service sector and light manufacturing seemed to follow closely with investments in the oil sector.

       Prior to the split, Chinese investments or FDI’s in Sudan between 2000 and 2008, excluding money bankrolled for oil interests, were equivalent to $249 million and bilateral trade between the two countries rose from $103 million in 1990 to $9.7 billion in 2007. By 2010, China became Sudan's largest trading partner and these investments had direct impacts on the economic prospects of the country as its revenue rose exponentially between 2002 and 2008.

       Overall, China's FDI has had a double effect of expanding the export sector and reducing Sudan's dependence on imported key oil products. The CNPC's investment in the domestic refining capacity of the country has contributed to import substitute industrialization (ISI) which is an economic policy that replaces foreign imports with domestic production and, thus, has given rise to other processing industries based on oil, specifically in plastic products and road construction.

       Even as Sudan went two-ways, China didn’t relent. South Sudan boasts 3.5 billion barrels’ worth of crude oil in proven reserves, and petroleum geologists will likely find more in the two-thirds of South Sudan that they have yet to explore. Of course, Beijing is there. And so as the U.S. willingly tries to fix the political tempest in Sudan, China awaits while watching the NBA playoffs. But business happens as usual. 🇸🇩🇸🇩🇸🇩

[Photos: World Council of Churches. SAT-7 UK. Reuters.]