Compilation of my short MORNING THOUGHTS.

Previously posted on my Facebook Page.

I get stereotyped as “political.” Or all I talk/write about is politics. I am drawn to politics because political facts define how we exist in society. But then my “politics” is mostly a writing activity. Fact is, In person, I am a light, easy dude. I joke a lot, frequently silly, juvenile jokes. When conversations turn into political arguments, I don’t engage. I don’t lecture political activism. In my younger/active years, I “walked” my activism more than I wrote/spoke about it. 👈👅👉

The Junior is the new President of the Philippines. I spent most of my life helping bring down Ferdinand Marcos Sr.'s 20-year dictatorship. I almost died doing so. But the past is the past. I have healed from wounds incurred in those days. These days are for my children, grandchildren, and yours. Optimism in light is pro-active fun; pessimism in the dark is doomsday inertia. But positivity right here, right now—doesn’t mean you’d ignore yesterday’s blood on today’s tracks. 🇵🇭🇵🇭🇵🇭

Student loan forgiveness. Most Asians avoid college loans and just pay up. In case they are broke, they take 3 to 4 jobs and save up (for college). Cultural truth that is widely accepted by my people: A college degree generally boosts an individual's earnings over their lifetime. This: Any broad-based forgiveness would cost billions of dollars. All taxpayers, not just those who have a college degree, would be contributing to the cost of cancellation. Not fair. Just saying. 📚💰📚

What is NFT? “Non-fungible token.” A unique digital identifier that cannot be copied, substituted, or subdivided, that is recorded in a blockchain etc etcetera. Whatever. Critical Race Theory. Sensitivity Editor. Cultural Appropriation. Affirmative Action. And so on and so forth. Academia invent/s these kickass words, terms, and blah when all the world needs is straight-through communication and gut-level messages. Or they just want to force-feed the value of googling? 🤨👉📱

Post-election: Philippines. I sat with a think-tank that ran the presidential bid of (the late) Sen. Raul Roco in late 1990s. We lost to an inebriated clown. I was young, naïve, and idealistically gullible—but I learned through the years. The Marcos family is back. So be it. Campaign/runup to election day is different from leadership performance as is. Pre-proclamation are all “walk” and “talk.” Time to judge the “work,” not forgetting blood on the tracks (of the past). 🇵🇭🇵🇭🇵🇭

Looks like the new President of the Philippines is Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Many are frustrated. But I am easy. My romantic idealism has been superseded by pragmatic cool. If your calling is political activism or Congress lobby? Fiscalize, advocate—in pursuit of socioeconomic change. An accountant, “taho” vendor, or schoolteacher? Don’t stress by hurling murk 24/7. Be a good accountant, “taho” vendor, or schoolteacher. You are serving the people, not the government. 🇵🇭🇵🇭🇵🇭

The bond that connects a child to the mother. Forged right in her womb and carried there for nine long months, then ushered to earth with fresh blood and sweet pain? When the umbilical cord is cut, that streak of tears running down her face as the baby screams the first cry of life. Magic! That is love, that is the world. How am I supposed to experience that? It’s beyond me, beyond my limitations as a man. [--From my essay, “Mother.” Written in 2005, on the day my mom passed away.]❤️👱‍♀️💖

Happy Mother’s Day to mothers of the world! I mean, moms who gave birth to another life. Not figurative-moms, okay? Otherwise, everybody will claim to be a “mother” as well. And please, lose the drama of “…my mom never loved me” or “…my mom betrayed me the moment she voted Trump!” Everybody has a mother. We ain’t here on earth if mom wasn’t here first. It wasn’t the father who nurtured us within her for nine months and shed blood to give us life. It was Mom! 👶👩‍💓👱‍♀️

No brainer. Johnny Depp can be abusive when drunk or drugged. Cliché among the rich and famous. So wife Amber Heard sought divorce in 2016. Ms Heard received a $7 million settlement, which she vowed to donate to an L.A. Children's Hospital and ACLU. But only fraction/s of the donation were given. Anyhow, the court advised Depp and Heard to move on. Amber didn’t. She should have. Now she’s about to lose in a $50 million defamation case filed by Depp. 🎭🎬🎭

Anti-war is the activism ideal that feeds my existence, youth to old age. I was an anti U.S. military bases activist till Clark Air Base and Subic Naval Base left the Philippines in 1991. But I am not anti-military; I am anti-war. Yet I don’t get it that many colleagues who supposedly shared my advocacy now support NATO or militarism per se—mainly due to their partisan politics. For me, whether you call yourself Right or Left, as long as you are anti-war, I am with you. ☮️☮️☮️

More Epstein Talk.

Response to Facebook posts by friends. 

FB Friend: As I think you know, young girls and women have been accusing Trump and Epstein of assault and sexual misconduct for years. FOR YEARS! Often they withdraw claims saying they have been threatened. Similar to how the White House has said "Helping Thomas Massie and Liberal Democrats with their attention-seeking, while the DOJ is fully supporting a more comprehensive file release effort from the oversight committee, would be viewed as a very hostile act to the administration.” 

ME: So they are not "threatened" now? Considering the names of alleged powerful individuals in the so-called list? Talks about that "list" came out when Virginia Giuffre accused Prince Edward in 2019/2021. The "list" could be a figure of speech, not a physical list although wealthy/powerful clients of sex traffickers are a fact. 

       Uhh would there be a “list” or “crime logbook” that includes names of ex-U.S. presidents, UK royalty, super wealthy individuals etcetera? What, countersigned with corresponding photo-ops (with pimped women, men, child) as proofs? The thought of a physical Epstein clients list baffles me.  

I am thinking, do the new "victims" now have protection? Whether the names that they will name (verb) are guilty or not (that'd be tough) the end game are $settlements, regardless of the “Epstein documents.” 

       And Mr Epstein is dead; Ghislaine Maxwell is now in jail. Yet after Ms Giuffre settled (with the prince), she figured in a car crash then committed "suicide" this year. These are more truths than facts about whistleblowers and those who were brave enough to come out. But the word "settlement" is alluring to legal pursuits, of course. 

       Meanwhile, human trafficking stays as a lucrative criminal endeavor. What are we doing about all these? Amidst the Giuffre saga, a French nonprofit reported about a global trafficking ring that Jeffrey was allegedly connected with. Of course, he was. That is no brainer. Yet are we using this Epstein thriller against Mr Trump or are we pursuing those ghouls and hounds instead? 

       Otherwise, why only now that these victims came out? In 2021, they should have joined Virginia in her fight. They didn't. ⚖️😒⚖️

The RUSSIA and SOUTH AMERICA Story.

Past Facebook posts. Not updated.

MY TAKE on the NEWS. “A World Away From Ukraine, Russia Is Courting Latin America.” And adds: “The Ukraine crisis has revived a struggle over Latin America between the U.S. and Russia, as Vladimir V. Putin seeks greater influence in the region.” Pretty much like Asia, Latin America’s stand on the Ukraine crisis is ambivalent, if not diverse or vague. Yet no Latin/Asian country has shipped or vowed military aid to Kiev, unlike most European nations.

       Meantime, before all these blew up, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov made an indirect threat that Russia could not rule out deploying military forces to its allies Venezuela and Cuba, as he highlighted Moscow’s clout in the Western Hemisphere. Yet even as violence carries on, most of Latin/South America stay generally neutral.

       Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro reiterates that his country is maintaining neutrality in the conflict. “We are not going to take sides. We are going to continue to be neutral and help however possible to find a solution,” he said. Brazil has deep economic ties with Moscow, mostly by way of oil and fertilizer.

       Mr Ryabkov’s dare wasn’t the first time that the Kremlin issued a warning. In 2008, during the conflict over Russia-backed separatists in Georgia, Russia first deployed Tu-160 nuclear-capable bombers to Venezuela, later followed by four warships. Russia sent its Tu-160 bombers back to the region again in 2013 as the United States and European Union pressured the country over its support of separatist forces in Ukraine.

       And as President Biden pounds on President Putin some more with a U.S. ban on Russian oil imports on Tuesday (3/8/2022), expect a more equally damning response from the Kremlin. Peace seems to be losing its mojo. 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇦🇷

DURING Donald Trump’s tenure at White House, Washington was able to regain lost ground in Venezuela without a bloody “regime change” following massive anti-Nicolas Maduro protests in Caracas. But that doesn’t mean the country with a massive oil reserve is all-American. Ideologically, Venezuela is still a Russian advocate. Hugo Chávez and his successor Maduro are Russia’s most reliable allies for projecting force into the region.

       Take note: Russia’s position in Venezuela is arguably among the largest and most strategically significant of its positions in the region. The two key axes of the Moscow/Caracas relationship have been arms sales and oil.

       With respect to arms, from 2006 through the death of Chávez in 2013, Russia sold over $11 billion in arms to Venezuela, including T-72 tanks, BMP-3 and BTR-80 armored vehicles, Su-30 fighters, Mi-17 and Mi-35 helicopters, and other military end items, making Venezuela by far Russia’s largest military partner in the region. The two countries also agreed to establish a rifle factory in Venezuela, although the project has suffered significant delays due to corruption and other problems.

       As the political and fiscal crisis of the Venezuelan regime deepened and its ability to pay its bills diminished, Russia’s military engagement shifted from the purchase of new end items to maintenance, upgrades, training, and other types of support.

       Enter petroleum. Chávez practically led Russia's oil giants with open arms: Gazprom, TNK, Lukoil, and Surgutneftegas, and later Rosneft. But as the Venezuelan economy collapsed under Maduro, most of Russia’s energy biggies left or lessened investments. 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇦🇷

NICARAGUA has long been one of Russia’s key partners in the region, with the relationship centered on the bond with leader Daniel Ortega and the Sandinista movement (FSLN), which the Soviet Union armed and helped bring to power in 1979.

       Ortega rekindled the relationship when he returned to office in 2007, and his government was the first in the region to diplomatically recognize the Russian-backed territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia when they broke away from the Republic of Georgia in 2008.

       Over the next 14 years, Russian support for the Ortega regime grew from donations of buses and foodstuffs to Mi-17 helicopters, Yak-130 fighter trainers, An-26 medium transport aircraft, TIGR armored cars, T-72 tanks, ZU-23 anti aircraft guns, and an array of older Russian armored vehicles, as well as Mizrah patrol craft and Molina missile boats.

       Russian cooperation also included setting up a downlink facility for the Russian GLONASS satellite system, inaugurated in 2017, and a Russian regional training facility in Managua for the Russian counterdrug organization FSKN. The FSKN facility in Nicaragua offers Russian operatives the opportunity to interact with police officials from across Central America who would not normally send officers to Russia for training. 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇦🇷

CUBA. Russian military engagement with and arms sales to Cuba have been limited since the abrupt cutoff of Russian aid in 1993 following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Nonetheless, Russian firms were still involved in the Cuban petroleum sector, in nickel mining, and in the transportation sector. Russia has sent 1000 minibuses and 50 trains to Cuba, and it sells Lada cars and Kamaz trucks to the island, among other goods.

       Peru. Russia has had a special relationship with the Peruvian military, and particularly its army, since the presidency of Juan Velasco Alvarado (1968-1975), a left-wing general who seized power in a coup d’état. Alvarado followed through with a shipment of Soviet arms initially intended for the Chilean government of Salvador Allende. Older generation Peruvian arms included Mi-8, Mi-24, and later Mi-17 helicopters, and T-55 tanks. Peru also purchased Su-22 fighter bombers and Su-25 fixed-wing aircraft from the Soviet Union in the late 1970s and early 1980s, which the country later used against Ecuador during the Cenepa War of 1995.

       Argentina. Russia’s role as a purchaser of Argentine grain and beef has opened a door in the relationship between the two countries, even under right-of-center and military governments. The left wing of the Peronist movement in Argentina, including former President and current Vice President Christina Fernández de Kirchner, has entertained military relations with Russia. Argentina has contemplated buying Russian fighter aircraft in both 2015 and again in 2021, including Mig-29s and Su-30s. Nonetheless, it has yet to consummate a major arms deal. 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇦🇷

OTHERS. Beyond those mentioned, other potential Russian partners in the region are Xiomara Castro in Honduras, Gabriel Boric in Chile, Luis Arce in Bolivia, and if former guerrilla Gustavo Petro wins in Colombia in the nation’s May 2022 elections.

       Chinese money remains an enabling factor in all these, as expected. Russia’s economy, with a gross domestic product of $1.48 trillion, is only a tenth of the size of China’s $14.7 trillion GDP. Moreover, Russia’s economy is far less diversified and more dependent on earnings from oil exports, which are subject to significant fluctuations. Correspondingly, Russia’s ability to provide significant quantities of military hardware or fund other projects on credit to partners in the region for an extended period is limited.

       And so Beijing comes in. Given Vladimir Putin’s resolve, at this point, to prolong his military operations in Ukraine, Xi Jinping stays conveniently here or there, but that is a classic CCP stance. And we know where Beijing’s allegiance is—although I see China favoring an end to hostilities, prolonged war means prolonged delay of work.

       Which goes to say, the most credible power that could convince Russia to end its aggression in Ukraine is China. We don’t want this mess to rub off in South America or elsewhere. Bad for business. 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇦🇷

More About the Ukraine War.

Response to Facebook posts by friends. 

<>MY TAKE: The European people will eventually force the leaders of Germany, UK and France to pull out their hardheaded (military) support of Ukraine. The EU's collective economy's pace is still at below 1 percent + a number of internal troubles (the on and off migrant crisis shudders again). And the cold fact: No sign of Ukraine winning as its people stays in misery. 

       <>Mr Trump did not abandon Ukraine. The U.S., whoever is POTUS, can't abandon Ukraine since strife out there has always been brought by the U.S. proxy war vs. Russia. But President Trump isn't high on prolonged wars in favor of trade/economic relations right now. Which is exactly why the U.S. is in Ukraine: The country's massive natural resources. And The D clearly has a different playbook to gain the same objective. 

       <>Donald Trump was on his way to end the war and has dealt with Ukraine's "rare earth" etc as trade-off for all the U.S. aid. He held off the last aid package signed by Congress last year as he met with Vladimir Putin. But then Germany, France and the UK renewed their (arms) support of Ukraine. So that talk didn't work. 

        <>This war is a waste of taxpayer money and lives, destruction. Of course, Volodymyr Zelensky will not refuse EU's aid. A continuing war means he stays in power. Clearly, he is a beleaguered man. The U.S. is the real power that keeps him there (not Europe) but the current POTUS sort of says "cut and cut clean" (to borrow the same words used by Washington to a failed, falling dictator that the U.S. backed for 2 decades, in the Philippines). So if Z doesn't "cut clean," we know what'd that be. History. ☮️☮️☮️

DAY’s Politics: Epstein, and NATO, and Stuff.

Response/s to a Facebook chat on the subject of Mr Trump “losing” the war.

COMING from a dictatorship country, all of 20 years of authoritarian hell, I long for justice after a court hearing. Not because you and I accuse a person (Donald Trump, oh well!) of crime just because we didn't like them. America. Yet these: Jeffrey Epstein first faced criminal charges in 2006. First time reports of a “clients list” came out? Around 2015, when civil lawsuits were filed against Ghislaine Maxwell. How many POTUSes sat since 2006? Four. 

       Isn’t the “list” a no-brainer? Don't we old people think at all? Why? So why point (only) at Mr Trump? The Eps dude is dead (possibly wasted). The "list" has been destroyed. We will never know. No brainer. Meanwhile, each year in this country, more than 100,000 children are reported as victims of sexual exploitation, or trafficking. Due to recent (2021-2024) laxity in U.S. border controls, traffickers from Eastern Europe and Asia hooked up with Central American drug cartels for easy passage of trafficked people into the U.S. 

       Pertinent facts: <>In 2021, the number of illegals in the U.S. was 11+ million; in 2024, 14+ million. <>There was a US/Central America effort to curb this scourge (especially drug trafficking) called Merida Initiative. Your President ended that program in 2021. Why? We are old. We know why. And as an oldie, I gave up ideological purity or political zealotry or "I hate this politician" rage. I look at the bigger picture. Pragmatic but realistic. 🏛🗽🏛

LET me try to put it this way. <1> No POTUS can 100 percent ignore the deep state's hawks. That's just the way America is. <2> Yet President Trump still held the billions$ military aid that was approved by Congress last year for Ukraine's war. Instead, he challenged EU powers to upgrade their share in NATO funding. Trump already lowered U.S. share from 22 percent to 16 percent in 2019/2020, almost equal now with Germany. 

       <3> Trump/Putin peace talks didn't work (for now) because Europe renewed its military support of Ukraine with new, spiked individual Defense budgets. <4> So here comes Trump trade mojo: Sell more U.S. arms to NATO instead of more U.S. weapons aid to Kyiv. <5> Could be the next Trump tactic vs EU. Tariffs. Higher tariffs or quit sending arms to Kyiv and talk peace with the Kremlin. 

      <6> Trump's style is unorthodox and unpredictable but I get his chess game. ☮️☮️☮️

More Trump Tariff Talk or TTT.

Response to Facebook posts by Friends. 

THE major reason why tariff "tactics" have evolved into a huge headline feed that causes confusion is because this is Donald Trump we are talking about. But tariff deals on the negotiating table between economies have been going on for years or somehow since the history of global trade commenced. That's regardless of the British East India Company's brinkmanship from the 15th century to 17th century.

       Fast forward.

       After China entered the WTO in 2001 with an MFN (most favored nation) status, trade negotiations somehow took a new tact, away from Western standards (or dictates). Free trade, per principle, supposedly allows a "natural course" of trade sans tariffs, quotas and other restrictions but we know that isn't the case. 

       China and now BRICS have altered the global economic grid. Of course they impose tariffs per negotiations with individual economies, which eventually sent G7 reeling. For one, the Chinese business sense or strategy is always quietly shrewd, given as well that they have the labor force number and ample pertinent raw materials. BRICS: Think about the combined or collective leverage since the formation of the trade bloc a.k.a. “emerging economies” in 2009. 

       To compete with BRICS, the U.S. has to constantly shuffle cards, given that China has also expanded trade allies. Anyhow, so far Mr Trump's tariff chess game with China is working. Or China has no drastic moves. So far. 

       So we now go to the other pieces on the board or other economies. I don't claim to know how Mr Trump and his economic staff are doing things or if this will work or not. Remember, his first trade pact with China only materialized in his last year, January 2020. Joe Biden employed a contrary playbook so Don has to restart and then modify his Beijing playbook.

       But then, President Trump is not fighting with China; he is playing a competitive trade game leading to mutual goodness. I believe.🇺🇸☮️🇨🇳

The SRI LANKA Story.

Past Facebook posts. Not updated.

NEWS: “Sri Lanka Economy Has ‘Hit Rock Bottom,’ Putting Pressure on the President.” The South Asian nation of 21.9 population was supposedly enjoying a fine GDP growth until problems ensue. Now the country’s Rajapaksa dynasty is facing its toughest challenge yet as protesters demand that the president step down amid a devastating economic crisis. Food and fuel are suddenly either unavailable or exorbitantly priced. New York Times: “Protests are rising against a president with a reputation for brutality.”

       Before the tempest, Sri Lanka's GDP in terms of purchasing power parity is the second highest in the South Asian region in terms of per capita income, according to the I.M.F. The country’s economy has always been strong. In the 19th and 20th centuries, Sri Lanka became a plantation economy famous for its production and export of cinnamon, rubber, and Ceylon tea, which remains a trademark national export.

       Formerly known as Ceylon, Sri Lanka was a strategic port of importance for the British when it was under its rule between 1815 and 1948. After independence, socialism strongly influenced the government's economic policies till 1977. Colonial plantations were dismantled, industries were nationalized, and a welfare state established. In 1977, a free market economy was introduced to the country, incorporating privatization, deregulation, and the promotion of private enterprise. I don’t see anything wrong with such a transition.

       But tough times followed. Sri Lanka's more recent history was marred by a 26-year civil war, which began in 1983 and ended decisively in 2009, when the Sri Lanka Armed Forces defeated the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. 🇱🇰🇱🇰🇱🇰

TOUGH times. Seems like the world is falling into a spiral of strife. Despite this challenge, Sri Lanka has a decent economic pace of 5.5 percent, coming from last year’s 3.7 percent, and 2020’s not surprising and expected -3.6 percent, which is a global downward GDP trend.  

       Sri Lanka has a globally competitive set of industries, topped by its world-class tea, apparel, textile, rice production, and other agricultural products. Tourism is also a huge income-generating business. In addition to these economic sectors, overseas employment contributes highly to foreign exchange reserves. A huge 90 percent of expatriate Sri Lankans reside in the Middle East, mostly workers in oil fields.

       As expected, Chinese investments are a fact of economic life in the region or in the country. China controls a key international harbor built on the southern coast and has a terminal in Colombo Port. In 2021, the government also awarded the construction and operation of an elevated highway on the outskirts of Colombo in exchange for a $1 billion investment.

       Meanwhile, a subsidiary of state-owned China Communications Construction Company has led several infrastructure projects in the country, including Hambantota Port and Mattala International Airport. Construction of the $1.4 billion Colombo Port City started in 2021. 🇱🇰🇱🇰🇱🇰

THESE are the events, political shudders, that serve as magnet for Washington to fortify its relations with Sri Lanka. Pretty much expected. China slows down its FDI aggressiveness when social strife sets in.

       Yet despite the obvious imposing trade presence of China in the region, the United States remains as Sri Lanka’s top trading partner. Next: United Kingdom, India, and Germany.

       But the more significant Washington interest in Colombo is military alliance although security relations were ruffled by the United States’ opposition to how the country’s army handled the long Civil War that ended in 2009 (from 1983). The thumbs-down didn’t amount to a larger sanction, however.

       Meantime, during a 2020 visit by then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Sri Lanka—which also included India, the Maldives, Indonesia and Vietnam—Washington via President Trump’s rep denounced the Chinese Communist Party as a "predator" in front of Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. With the current hawkish Biden administration, such words would mean a lot.  

       The U.S. Armed Forces maintain a limited military-to-military relationship with the Sri Lanka defense establishment. Yet these days, Washington and Colombo have enhanced defense relations beyond the sale of military equipment and military training facilities. 🇱🇰🇱🇰🇱🇰