More About the Ukraine War.

Response to Facebook posts by friends. 

<>MY TAKE: The European people will eventually force the leaders of Germany, UK and France to pull out their hardheaded (military) support of Ukraine. The EU's collective economy's pace is still at below 1 percent + a number of internal troubles (the on and off migrant crisis shudders again). And the cold fact: No sign of Ukraine winning as its people stays in misery. 

       <>Mr Trump did not abandon Ukraine. The U.S., whoever is POTUS, can't abandon Ukraine since strife out there has always been brought by the U.S. proxy war vs. Russia. But President Trump isn't high on prolonged wars in favor of trade/economic relations right now. Which is exactly why the U.S. is in Ukraine: The country's massive natural resources. And The D clearly has a different playbook to gain the same objective. 

       <>Donald Trump was on his way to end the war and has dealt with Ukraine's "rare earth" etc as trade-off for all the U.S. aid. He held off the last aid package signed by Congress last year as he met with Vladimir Putin. But then Germany, France and the UK renewed their (arms) support of Ukraine. So that talk didn't work. 

        <>This war is a waste of taxpayer money and lives, destruction. Of course, Volodymyr Zelensky will not refuse EU's aid. A continuing war means he stays in power. Clearly, he is a beleaguered man. The U.S. is the real power that keeps him there (not Europe) but the current POTUS sort of says "cut and cut clean" (to borrow the same words used by Washington to a failed, falling dictator that the U.S. backed for 2 decades, in the Philippines). So if Z doesn't "cut clean," we know what'd that be. History. ☮️☮️☮️

DAY’s Politics: Epstein, and NATO, and Stuff.

Response/s to a Facebook chat on the subject of Mr Trump “losing” the war.

COMING from a dictatorship country, all of 20 years of authoritarian hell, I long for justice after a court hearing. Not because you and I accuse a person (Donald Trump, oh well!) of crime just because we didn't like them. America. Yet these: Jeffrey Epstein first faced criminal charges in 2006. First time reports of a “clients list” came out? Around 2015, when civil lawsuits were filed against Ghislaine Maxwell. How many POTUSes sat since 2006? Four. 

       Isn’t the “list” a no-brainer? Don't we old people think at all? Why? So why point (only) at Mr Trump? The Eps dude is dead (possibly wasted). The "list" has been destroyed. We will never know. No brainer. Meanwhile, each year in this country, more than 100,000 children are reported as victims of sexual exploitation, or trafficking. Due to recent (2021-2024) laxity in U.S. border controls, traffickers from Eastern Europe and Asia hooked up with Central American drug cartels for easy passage of trafficked people into the U.S. 

       Pertinent facts: <>In 2021, the number of illegals in the U.S. was 11+ million; in 2024, 14+ million. <>There was a US/Central America effort to curb this scourge (especially drug trafficking) called Merida Initiative. Your President ended that program in 2021. Why? We are old. We know why. And as an oldie, I gave up ideological purity or political zealotry or "I hate this politician" rage. I look at the bigger picture. Pragmatic but realistic. 🏛🗽🏛

LET me try to put it this way. <1> No POTUS can 100 percent ignore the deep state's hawks. That's just the way America is. <2> Yet President Trump still held the billions$ military aid that was approved by Congress last year for Ukraine's war. Instead, he challenged EU powers to upgrade their share in NATO funding. Trump already lowered U.S. share from 22 percent to 16 percent in 2019/2020, almost equal now with Germany. 

       <3> Trump/Putin peace talks didn't work (for now) because Europe renewed its military support of Ukraine with new, spiked individual Defense budgets. <4> So here comes Trump trade mojo: Sell more U.S. arms to NATO instead of more U.S. weapons aid to Kyiv. <5> Could be the next Trump tactic vs EU. Tariffs. Higher tariffs or quit sending arms to Kyiv and talk peace with the Kremlin. 

      <6> Trump's style is unorthodox and unpredictable but I get his chess game. ☮️☮️☮️

More Trump Tariff Talk or TTT.

Response to Facebook posts by Friends. 

THE major reason why tariff "tactics" have evolved into a huge headline feed that causes confusion is because this is Donald Trump we are talking about. But tariff deals on the negotiating table between economies have been going on for years or somehow since the history of global trade commenced. That's regardless of the British East India Company's brinkmanship from the 15th century to 17th century.

       Fast forward.

       After China entered the WTO in 2001 with an MFN (most favored nation) status, trade negotiations somehow took a new tact, away from Western standards (or dictates). Free trade, per principle, supposedly allows a "natural course" of trade sans tariffs, quotas and other restrictions but we know that isn't the case. 

       China and now BRICS have altered the global economic grid. Of course they impose tariffs per negotiations with individual economies, which eventually sent G7 reeling. For one, the Chinese business sense or strategy is always quietly shrewd, given as well that they have the labor force number and ample pertinent raw materials. BRICS: Think about the combined or collective leverage since the formation of the trade bloc a.k.a. “emerging economies” in 2009. 

       To compete with BRICS, the U.S. has to constantly shuffle cards, given that China has also expanded trade allies. Anyhow, so far Mr Trump's tariff chess game with China is working. Or China has no drastic moves. So far. 

       So we now go to the other pieces on the board or other economies. I don't claim to know how Mr Trump and his economic staff are doing things or if this will work or not. Remember, his first trade pact with China only materialized in his last year, January 2020. Joe Biden employed a contrary playbook so Don has to restart and then modify his Beijing playbook.

       But then, President Trump is not fighting with China; he is playing a competitive trade game leading to mutual goodness. I believe.🇺🇸☮️🇨🇳

The SRI LANKA Story.

Past Facebook posts. Not updated.

NEWS: “Sri Lanka Economy Has ‘Hit Rock Bottom,’ Putting Pressure on the President.” The South Asian nation of 21.9 population was supposedly enjoying a fine GDP growth until problems ensue. Now the country’s Rajapaksa dynasty is facing its toughest challenge yet as protesters demand that the president step down amid a devastating economic crisis. Food and fuel are suddenly either unavailable or exorbitantly priced. New York Times: “Protests are rising against a president with a reputation for brutality.”

       Before the tempest, Sri Lanka's GDP in terms of purchasing power parity is the second highest in the South Asian region in terms of per capita income, according to the I.M.F. The country’s economy has always been strong. In the 19th and 20th centuries, Sri Lanka became a plantation economy famous for its production and export of cinnamon, rubber, and Ceylon tea, which remains a trademark national export.

       Formerly known as Ceylon, Sri Lanka was a strategic port of importance for the British when it was under its rule between 1815 and 1948. After independence, socialism strongly influenced the government's economic policies till 1977. Colonial plantations were dismantled, industries were nationalized, and a welfare state established. In 1977, a free market economy was introduced to the country, incorporating privatization, deregulation, and the promotion of private enterprise. I don’t see anything wrong with such a transition.

       But tough times followed. Sri Lanka's more recent history was marred by a 26-year civil war, which began in 1983 and ended decisively in 2009, when the Sri Lanka Armed Forces defeated the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. 🇱🇰🇱🇰🇱🇰

TOUGH times. Seems like the world is falling into a spiral of strife. Despite this challenge, Sri Lanka has a decent economic pace of 5.5 percent, coming from last year’s 3.7 percent, and 2020’s not surprising and expected -3.6 percent, which is a global downward GDP trend.  

       Sri Lanka has a globally competitive set of industries, topped by its world-class tea, apparel, textile, rice production, and other agricultural products. Tourism is also a huge income-generating business. In addition to these economic sectors, overseas employment contributes highly to foreign exchange reserves. A huge 90 percent of expatriate Sri Lankans reside in the Middle East, mostly workers in oil fields.

       As expected, Chinese investments are a fact of economic life in the region or in the country. China controls a key international harbor built on the southern coast and has a terminal in Colombo Port. In 2021, the government also awarded the construction and operation of an elevated highway on the outskirts of Colombo in exchange for a $1 billion investment.

       Meanwhile, a subsidiary of state-owned China Communications Construction Company has led several infrastructure projects in the country, including Hambantota Port and Mattala International Airport. Construction of the $1.4 billion Colombo Port City started in 2021. 🇱🇰🇱🇰🇱🇰

THESE are the events, political shudders, that serve as magnet for Washington to fortify its relations with Sri Lanka. Pretty much expected. China slows down its FDI aggressiveness when social strife sets in.

       Yet despite the obvious imposing trade presence of China in the region, the United States remains as Sri Lanka’s top trading partner. Next: United Kingdom, India, and Germany.

       But the more significant Washington interest in Colombo is military alliance although security relations were ruffled by the United States’ opposition to how the country’s army handled the long Civil War that ended in 2009 (from 1983). The thumbs-down didn’t amount to a larger sanction, however.

       Meantime, during a 2020 visit by then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Sri Lanka—which also included India, the Maldives, Indonesia and Vietnam—Washington via President Trump’s rep denounced the Chinese Communist Party as a "predator" in front of Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. With the current hawkish Biden administration, such words would mean a lot.  

       The U.S. Armed Forces maintain a limited military-to-military relationship with the Sri Lanka defense establishment. Yet these days, Washington and Colombo have enhanced defense relations beyond the sale of military equipment and military training facilities. 🇱🇰🇱🇰🇱🇰

Donald Trump: The Great American Alibi. (And more talk about America's Guns.)

Responses to Facebook chats.

OF course. Of course. Donald Trump is the alibi. That'd be the crux, center, and core of U.S. attention, at least until the end of 2028. Maybe even beyond. Because that's what The Narrative spoonfeeds us. Or forces us to swallow whole.

       I was a long-time Leftist until I blurred my paradigm in late 1990s when the Organized Left in the Philippines split into two (as funding went scarce as the Cold War ended). And then I moved to the U.S. and tried to work with Left-wing Filipinos and Left-wing mainstream (largely Americans). I felt alienated, confused, or lost. 

       I can say a lot more but I'll just say the Left that I knew is gone. I see a dismissive elitism that is hot and high on ideological purity and liberal overreach. I am sure whoever argues this is equipped with "cool insults" and correct crassness as response, almost the antithesis of how we were when we were groundworking communities and labor-organizing. 

       We persuaded, we shook hands, we gathered for fun, we discussed with those who disagreed. We never gave up until we recruited them. 

       Years ago, organizing and activism were committed projects. Tactical alliances were effective. These days, the Left believes it can advocate its cause via a juvenile meme that is shared 5,000x in 1 minute. 🏛🗽🏛

 <>IN a nutshell, per war (or America's obsession with guns), these will only heighten or exponentially spike, regardless of a POTUS with a foreign policy playbook that leans kind of dovish. 

       Mr Trump may favor trade-based deals over military brinkmanship but that doesn't mean he won't sell arms for the masters of war. America's 120.5 guns per 100 stays as the marquee. I just hinge my little ambitions to less war, end of wars and less mass shootings in our midst. 

       <>I have been unaligned since I left the Philippines in late 1990s. But it is easy to be judged as this side's apologist because I refuse to ride the hate Trump bandwagon over reading between the lines of his policies or other policies by other POTUSes .🏛🗽🏛

Media stuff and remembering a (real, not imagined) dictatorship.

Responses to Facebook chats.

IN a 20-year dictatorship that I lived through in my most active life as a journalist, the ruling power doesn't shut a major newspaper down or the media outlet that fights it. Why? How'd they know who is against them? LOL! 

       But seriously, the stronger reason: The dictatorship's benefactor, Washington, wanted to let the world know there's still democracy in countries that it controls. 

       I was a junior staffer for the alternative or progressive paper that battled Ferdinand Marcos Sr., which was raided but allowed to resume a few months after. The raid was provoked, not really because We Forum was anti-Marcos (activists called it then “sabwatang Marcos-U.S.”) but because the dictator was infuriated by our publication of a series of articles questioning his (WW2) war medals. We were warned after two or three articles but the editors ignored it, of course.

       I also wrote for the biggest anti-government daily (Philippine Daily Inquirer) and an all-opinion weekly (“Manila's best thinkers”), post-revolution. I did co-publish a “guerrilla-like” newsmagazine (Weekend Banner) that was constantly monitored by the military, LOL! Shut me up? Writers write. They don't spew yarns like we will be shut down, guys! 🏛🗽✍️

MEANWHILE, it is a different situation in a Communist government which "owns" its media. Russia's The Kremlin has Tass. China's CCP has People's Daily, Guangming Daily and PLA Daily and the English-language China Daily. 

       In America? Under Donald Trump? Close to the New York Times, you say? That's laughable. Why not just shut down Saturday Night Live? LOL! This is America, a global power that earns its “coolness” boss mojo by, you know, being democratic and a bastion of freedom and democracy? If The Times or Washington Post or Rolling Stone get shut down, how'd President Trump be able to convince the world that America is still #1? Then China is better. Xi Jinping has an English paper, not just Mandarin. 

       Seriously though, whoever POTUS, the issue is the advent of China and BRICS, which is expanding--that is Washington's utmost concern. The New Left in America is simply pissed that their bet lost, period. The thing is, even if Kamala Harris won last year, China remains as China. 

       In fact, two or three weeks after November 2020  while Joe was celebrating, China gathered 14 economies in the Asia Pacific (including Australia, New Zealand, and Japan) to form the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), the largest trade bloc so far. And then BRICS welcomed Egypt, UAE, Iran, Indonesia and Ethiopia. The EU's top trading partner: China. 

       Ergo, whoever sits in 2028, the geopolitical grid has changed since 2021. It is not the 19th or 20th century anymore. America has to unite rather than continually divide itself. And we should stop pointing at Mr Trump as THE alibi for this country's crumbling foundation. 🏛🗽✍️

MAJOR U.S. newspapers or media outlets, for whatever reason, can be sold or bought out or acquired or merged with another but will never be shut down, I believe. 

       Part of New York Times’ current investors is the powerful BlackRock; Carlos Slim used to be a major shareholder. Of course, Jeff Bezos bought the Washington Post years ago. In 2018, Patrick Soon-Shiong bought the LA Times and two other publications. Warren Buffett used to own 30 newspapers and 49 weeklies, which he sold to Lee Enterprises (which currently publishes 72 newspapers in 25 states). Etc etcetera. 

       These U.S. media giants aren't like tiny mouthpieces that a POTUS can just erase. And as I said, the U.S.' marquee ego of "character of greatness" to the world, whoever sits in White House, can't just do a "dictatorial" trick like what its underlings elsewhere in the globe do. But shutting down a newspaper isn't that easy as SDO (standard dictatorship operation). 🏛🗽✍️

The U.S. and China. And More Tariff Talk.

Responses to Facebook chats.

THE tariff pitch is a "chip" as trade emissaries of the U.S. and China talk leading to a signed agreement or the 2nd phase of Mr Trump's trade pact with Xi Jinping (the first phase was inked in January 2020). 

       Fact: From 2021 to 2024, the U.S. (foreign policy) playbook obviously changed as China went to "work" quietly, groundworking other economies beyond the U.S. Hints: Just 2 weeks after Nov 2020, China gathered 14 Asia Pacific economies to form the RCEP, currently the world’s largest trade bloc. Check China's new FDIs in MENA. And of course BRICS expanded (add Egypt UAE Iran Indonesia Ethiopia) in those years. The impact of trade in Europe also shook as the Ukraine war exploded and Russian energy imports to the region halted or lessened. 

       The Chinese are very shrewd or cunning traders. As news focuses on or obsessed with every Trump move, the CCP makes deals in the backyard and side-streets. Look back how China bought lands NSEW of the Great Wall from the time of Deng Xiaoping to the 21st century as the U.S. was busy with “cold war'ring” with Russia. Parallel with while Joe was busy pissing off Vlad, Xi was tossing FDIs and loans all over. 

       As these tariff dramas are played up by the media like a doomsday missile, corporations take advantage by jacking up prices. Of course media is also owned or linked profit-wise with those who sell. Fact: The US is world's #1 consumer market and market influencer. Of course China knows that but China is not a top FDI or investor or landowner in the US (Japan and Canada are) yet the US buys a lot of raw materials or pertinent minerals from China like silicon (think Nvidia) and 8,600+ American companies (think Apple and Microsoft and GM) are active in China. Etc etcetera. 🏛🗽🏛